Rassmussen argues that cell phones over weigh to idealistic youth and that you can't tell if you are getting that voting household as easily as if you call the home and that folks are not yet used to solicitions on cell phones like they are on their home phones so he considers them less reliable
but really that is all sort of an unknown science just yet about cell phones so you could be correct or not...it's hard to say
polls samplings being what they are I think Dems cannot turnout anymore than 2-3 points more than GOP for GOP to win with their own bloc and Independents..in today's electorate
the vote that matters is the white vote...I am ignorant of poll samplings based on race to be honest
but the consensus seems to be that 58-61% of whites need to vote for GOP if they turnout in normal numbers..i think it was 55% in 2008 and 62% in 2010
in 1980 we only needed 51-53% of white vote to win
the order is much taller...and will become unattainable at some point though in my home state where they are surrounded by the evidence of our future (and our worst past ironically), whites vote 88-90% GOP
I know pollsters often base projections on the last Presidential election (2008) and not off-year elections (2010). I think this is a mistake. 2010 was the Tea Party revolution with a huge GOP turnout and suppressed DNC turnout. It was a strange election, but a very good one for us.
If they weighed 2010 into their calculations the polls would be much more favorable. What has changed since 2010? I would argue that those who voted in 2010 are just as motivated (or more) this time. Why would democrats be any more motivated now than they were in 2010? Why do they ignore the election that was labeled as a referendum on the Obama administration?
Maybe I should just stay in Brazil.