U.S. GDP growth likely to slow in second-half 2012

reuters ^ | 9/21/2012 | reuters

[tobyhill]

Recent jobs data were disappointing overall, showing soft potential for U.S. economic growth, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's, titled "U.S. Economic Forecast: He's Buying A Stairway To Heaven." We expect U.S. GDP growth of just 2.2% this year and only 1.8% in 2013.

"Our expectation for the chances of another U.S. recession is about 20%-25%," said Standard & Poor's Deputy Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino. "Chances of a quick turnaround are around 15%."

The poor labor market continues to keep the recovery in slow gear, spurring Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to take unprecedented action. After its September Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, the Fed extended its guidance on interest rates, saying that it will keep rates low until mid-2015. The Fed also initiated another round of quantitative easing, this time making the offer open-ended and tying it to labor market conditions.

"A strong economic recovery is likely a long ways away. Businesses have pulled back on hiring, with a monthly average of just 97,000 job gains over the past six months. That's well below the 240,000-plus monthly job gains we saw in the winter," said Ms. Bovino. "This gives us reason not to expect a revival in household spending any time soon." Worries that taxes may jump next year if Congress doesn't reach a compromise on the fiscal cliff will also keep people cautious this year.

[ilgipper]

These are the stats that need to be in Romney ads. We are heading the wrong way, and it will only get better with a different economic strategy.

Assure a low tax burden for five years, clean up the regulations, get the boot off the neck of businesses so they can hire, and get government spending under control.

It is a simple message and one that is already shared by the voters.

[fhayek]

Danm George W. Bush again.

[Rodm]

Yah-think? Captain Obvious!

[Jim from C-Town]

Real inflation is around 8%, have you been to the grocery store or gas station recently?

The real rate of growth is around -4% and has been for the majority of O’Bumblers term, except for the first half of 2010 when the REAL rate of growth was close to 1% or .5%.

The disparity can all be laid at the ‘inflation adjusted’ number used by the government. They eliminate the wholesale price of food and gas, BEFORE they calculate inflation.

In a negative growth pattern when the Fed is inflating dollars, commodities like food and gas increase, yet durable goods and other consumer demands are stifled. This leads to a much slower rise in prices among durable and consumer goods as those industries shed employees to cope with lower demand as apposed to raising prices.

We are being lied to, AGAIN!

[ClearCase_guy]

There are many serious problems that the next patriotic president really must tackle. My top two suggestions are a little non-standard:

1) Re-jigger government statistics so that honesty is restored, and people can REALLY understand the current inflation rate, the unemployment rate, and the rate of growth (or decline) in GDP. No more lying and obfuscation. Set a standard, and require a super majority of congress for any future "tweaks" to that standard.

2) Re-jigger the voting process so that all national elections require voter ID, require that voter rolls be verified, and create a standardzied methodology so that all elections are honest.

If those two things are accomplished, we will never get another Democrat in office, and the real Americans can confidently start the long process of rebuilding this country.

[central_va]

Unexpected bump.