Rasmussen: PA - 0bama 51% - Romney 39%

Rasmussen Repors ^ | 9-20-12 | Scott Rasmussen

[Moorings]

Maybe then the tactic should be to deflate the enthusiasm of the the urban voters through some serious ads that discourages them.

[Elendur]

are cultural Catholics
///
i detest cultural catholics.
but, the poll i refer to,
INCLUDING cultural Catholics.
and the total, was -27 % for Obama.
(it was covered in numerous FR articles.)
-
and also covered here, was the study NARAL
commissioned, which showed 20% of the WOMEN
who voter for Obama in 2008, have switched.
-
Jewish voters (admittedly a minority in PA)
are also down over 20%.
-
Obama is going to be rejected,
in a landslide of historic proportions.
(Obama already has his $35 million
beachfront estate in Hawaii picked out...)

[Keen-Minded]

Are you suggesting give up and not vote???

[aMorePerfectUnion]

“Who cares about PA? No Repub has won PA in 25 years.”

Yea, it was the last time a conservative Republican ran ...

[muawiyah]

Why would Romney be wasting time in California?

[JediJones]

There is only one "swing" area in PA. That is the old coal region around Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. That is largely ethnic Catholic, there are some traditional morality people there who have gone for Santorum and Toomey.

That's where I was born and raised. I know longtime Democrat voters who refused to vote for Obama last time and won't vote for him this time. But the magical, mythical voter seems to be the one who voted for Obama in 2008 and is now switching to Republican in 2012.

I can tell you the best way to "swing" a voter to the Republican side is to get them watching Fox News or listening to talk radio. They are Democrats largely because they live, eat and breathe the MSM. The MSM has made them afraid to even try listening to conservative media, by demonizing it as "right-wing extremists" and that kind of thing. But if you can get them to start listening/watching, you can "deprogram" them and turn them Republican in about 4 to 8 years. Democrats don't think and act in a vacuum or by sheer randomness. Their brains have been programmed and they can be deprogrammed with enough time being exposed to the truth.

[Elendur]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-are-you-seeing-what-im-seeing
///
wow. very depressing article. excellent charts.
...even liberals know now, that Obama is bad for the USA.
he will be rejected.
but, as your article shows... it may be too late.

[Perdogg]

There was one poll suggesting that 0buma was under performing in the suburbs of Chicago.

[FredZarguna]

It's Rassmussen. The methodology is not questionable. 500 likely voters is only 1.4 times less accurate than 1000 likely voters for a pollster with a good "likely" formula, which he has. It's MOE is about 4.5% vs. 3% for 1000. Even with a statistically unlikely refusal rate by Republicans, it can't be better than about -6 for Romney.

Barring some earth shattering development, PA is a waste of time for the Republicans in Presidential years.

[SoCalConservative]

Born and raised in Bucks myself and you are spot on.

[Moorings]

Actually I saw BO’s ads playing here up to a month ago. The last time I saw them was during the conventions. I was surprised since I thought that this state was completely in the bag for the dems. I have not seen any Romney ads on TV here.

[rollo tomasi]

No, total demographics would conclude nationally that Penn leans dem; Nixon the second time, Reagan twice, and Bush the Elder once since 1960 would conclude the rural voters/’burbs are fickled when it comes to certain types of Republican Presidential candidates in an State dominated by rural Repub congressional members.

1988 is the last victory by a Repub Pres. Candidate, hence rural dem voters who seem religious, seem to not like moderate Republicans. Texas does not have this problem because usually dem rural voters lean towards Republican Pres. Candidates because they can't stand their big government brethren, ergo, they have more sense from a blue dog perspective.

[jjotto]

Of the ten largest states by population, California, New York, Illinois, and Michigan are already permanently lost to conservatives. Add Pennsylvania, and probably North Carolina and Ohio aren’t far behind. Demographics are burying conservatives permanently, which is not lost on the GOP-E.

[muawiyah]

Real FReepers expected as much ~ and demanded action by the GOP-e to come up with a winning candidate or just get out of the Republican party and leave those people alone.

That didn't happen so now there's this campaign doing something ~ GOING TO CALIFORNIA? ~ and early voting is already underway.

BTW, Obamugabe went to Woodbridge VA just down the street and had a big gathering in an outdoor stadium ~ a whole 12,000 people!

Sarah's first appearance in Virginia 4 years ago drew TWICE THAT! And that was without seats or toilets.

I am sure both sides in this campaign have their own private polls that portend total disaster ~ that's an artifact of declining popularity for both candidates, but the system still works to assign a victory to one or the other, but that will literally be unknown until the last ballot is counted ~ and will be a complete and utter surprise to the winner and the loser.

[FredZarguna]

A lot of them pay no attention to anything "political" at all. In a Presidential year the shop steward comes to the job site or workplace and hands them a list of candidates they're to vote for, and that's the extent of their politics.

The NRA could have real influence here (second highest NRA membership in the country -- second in raw numbers only to Texas -- and the highest percentage of NRA members in the US) but doesn't seem to work very hard in PA.

[jwalsh07]

They should be non existent in Pa. It is a rat state pure and simple. Why waste a dime there?

[Lancey Howard]

I’m not buying this. Pennsylvania has recently elected a conservative GOP senator and a fairly conservative GOP governor, and has strong Republican majorities in the state House and Senate. Where, suddenly, did all the transexual African welfare moochers come from who support Ubama?

[Red Steel]

R&R are doing better than RR from some years back at this point.

"Gallup Had Carter Up 4 Points Over Ronald Reagan in September 1980"

"Back in 1980 Gallup had Jimmy Carter up over Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid to late September… And, Carter was up 8 points in October. In fact there was a published Gallup poll showing Carter up six among likely voters in a poll conducted Oct. 24 to 27."

[Elendur]

Their brains have been programmed and they can be deprogrammed with enough time being exposed to the truth.

`///
great post. great points.
...but the cracks are appearing.
public trust of media is the lowest ever, and declining.
and now, that more and more people are saying
that Emperor Obama isn’t wearing any clothes,
more people are talking to neighbors,
and being exposed to the truth, like you said.

[muawiyah]

Obamugabe has 10 million 2008 voters to waste. Romney still needs an extra 4 million 2004 voters to get up to the Bush high water mark.

The logistics for winning are different in both cases, and of course the electoral votes are the only ones that count, but there you have it.