"Obama is supported by 89% of Democrats. Romney gets the vote from 85% of Republicans and holds a 12-point advantage among unaffiliated voters."
Is it really possible that 15% of Republicans will vote for Obama while only 11% of Dems will vote for Romney? Given Romney's 12 point advantage with unaffiliated voters this supposed differential is the only reason that this race is tied.
While I trust Rasmussen much more than any other of the pollsters, most of whom are really just carrying Obama's water, I am very suspicious of this aspect of his poll. Time will tell of course. Someone is actually going to win and someone, hopefully Obama, is going to lose.
That 15% Republican isn't voting for Obama...there are other candidates...others may just sit this one out...
They won't vote for Zero directly. They'll do it by proxy by voting for some "true and perfect conservative" 3rd party unknown that hasn't a snowball's chance of doing anything except act as a spoiler...
Since then, they have gone to no polling but ONLY thousands upon thousands of personal phone calls and walks. The overwhelming---but anecdotal---evidence is that the Rs will turn out far beyond 85%, the indies are at least 10% higher for Romney than O. I personally think even this is way low based on (again) anecdotal reports.
More important, the (not anecdotal but real evidence) of early absentee requests is very very substantially favoring REpublicans in key counties (Franklin, for ex, which is Columbus, has a 4000 edge; Hamilton, a 5500 edge, and even Dark, with a 30,000 Dem registration advantage, has a 700 R edge so far!!!)