Note the latest trick now with pollsters. While they reduce the bogus skewed partisan splits (here it is a reasonable D+3 - although I still say they are in for a shock that will show R+3)). They now reduce Independents (who are breaking for Romney) to give Obama the lead.
A Democrat POTUS nominee cannot lose indies and win the election.
2000 Gore (Indies +1) (Popular Vote Margin E) (Diff -1)
2004 Kerry (Indies +2) (Popular Vote Margin -3) (Diff -5)
2008 Obama (Indies +8) (Popular Vote Margin +7) (Diff -1)
TIP: Take a look at independent margin, add 1-2 for GOP. And that is your margin of victory, either way.
Example here: Obama is down 2 with indies. He will lose by 3-4 points.
Example B: If Obama were up 5 with indies. He would win by 3-4.
Keep eye on the Indies. Ignore everything else. No matter what they do, they cannot impact how a certain demo will vote.
I have noticed that as well. It's been going on for about 2 weeks now.
And your analysis of the Independent vote is right on. It is the key to this election. So expect the MSM to start lying more and more about it as we move into the final weeks of the election cycle.