Using the 2010 turnout is ridiculous. There is no repeat of 2010 coming. The turnout will be somewhere between 2008 and 2010. D+3 is probably about right.
I very much disagree As politico reported back in April. Dem registration is DOWN in just the battleground states as reported by Politico hardly a RW site:
“A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in eight key battleground states.
GOP registration has also declined — but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats’ losses.
Meanwhile, registered independents are on the rise, increasing their numbers in those states by nearly half-a-million.
The analysis, conducted by centrist Democratic think tank Third Way and appearing first in POLITICO, points to the critical role independent voters will play in determining the presidential outcome in some of the most competitive states on the 2012 map — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
The biggest independent gains came in North Carolina, the site of the Democratic National Convention this year and a state that was decided by less 15,000 votes in 2008. While both major parties lost ground there in the four years since then, Democrats have been especially hard hit: Registration fell by 116,662 (–4.1 percent), compared to a GOP decline of 13,017 (-0.7%).”
Couple this WITH the Double Digit Romney is holding among independents.
So be as pessimistic as YOU choose there is noting in the hard data to support your POV other than your ‘feelings’.
Personally I leave feelings to libs, I try to deal with whatever facts are available and try to draw logical conclusion from the data.