We’re shafted.
Here is my take on the top ten U.S. Senate races most likely to flip:
1.) Nebraska- State Senator Deb Fischer (R) has come out of nowhere to become a rising star and is a solid favorite to win the general election. Bob Kerrey (D) is very much yesterday’s news.
2.) Maine- Ex-Governor Angus King, running as an independent, has slipped in recent weeks, but still remains the favorite. Ex state Senator Charlie Summers has potential, but needs to build up his name I.D. The ‘Rat, state Senator Cynthia Dill, remains mired in third place.
3.) North Dakota- The race between Congressman Rick Berg (R) and ex-state Attorney General Heidi Heithkamp (D) remains surprisingly close, with Heithkamp exceeding everybod’s expectations. That being said, most polls show Berg slightly ahead in a state where Obama is highly unpopular and while I don’t think he’ll win by much, he’ll probably win.
4.) Montana- Most polls show Congressman Denny Rehberg (R) holding a narrow lead over incumbent Jon Tester (D). Tester has run a good campaign and Rehberg was clearly caught off guard by it. Still, look for Rehberg to win in a close race.
5.) Massachusetts- Incumbent Scott Brown (R) is doing what he has to do to win in this liberal bastion, but even that might not be quite enough. Elizabeth Warren’s class warfare speech at her party’s convention was like a free infomercial and she’s pulled even in the polls. Brown’s campaign has become increasingly aggressive in response.
5.) Wisconsin- Tommy Thompson (R)had momentum after winning the Republican primary, but was broke and had to raise funds. Democrat Tammy Baldwin and her party caught him napping and bombarded him with negative ads, which he wasn’t able to answer. Now it’s a tossup.
6.) Virginia- Tim Kaine (D) vs. George Allen (R) remains expensive, grueling, and too close to call. It may be the last race called on election night, with the victor anybody’s guess.
7.) Indiana- Establishment vs. conservatve divisions remain among state REpublicans after Richard Lugar’s defeat. State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is in a close one with Congressman Joe Donnelly and both parties are spending big time on attack ads. How much Obama loses the state by may influence the outcome.
8.) Connecticut- This wasn’t even supposed to be competitive, but businesswoman Linda McMahon (R) has proven to be a better candidate than even her supporters had expected and she’s thrown Congressman Christopher Murphy on the defensive over a questionable home mortgage. Murphy is running negative ads, but was clearly caught off guard.
9.) New Mexico- Congressman Martin Heinrich has pulled ahead of his Republican predecessor in the House, Heather Wilson. The race remains competitive and Wilson remains well within striking distance.
10.) Josh Mandel’s campaign to unseat Sherrod Brown has hit some speed bumps and bad press. However, while Brown remains in the lead, he still hasn’t put this race away.
Well we knew Toddie wasn’t gonna quit.
He only trails narrowly now so that sucker is still on the list (if not top 10, close). I’d like to smack him but we gotta try to elect him instead.
Wisconsin, hey maybe I’m nuts but like with North Dakota I’m skeptical even though the latest Ras has her up 3 (and he had her up big a couple months ago, very queer). The muncher from Madison isn’t gonna beat Tommy Thompson.
Many recent polls to my surprise have the race in PA pretty close so that needs our attention. WA post has moved it to “lean d”.
With Brown, he’s been down in recent polls, (tied in Rasmussen). I’ve figured on him to win but yes, it’s MA. Another rare race (like with Mia Love) where it’s helpful Romney is on the ballot, he will lose MA big but crack 40% and do better than anyone else would have.
Less worried about Heller even though PPP(D) has him down 4. I’ve not liking recent polls by that firm, they curiously have the rats narrowly ahead in every key race.
Indiana, Mourdock needs to get himself in gear. Surprising but again the democrat actually winning that seems beyond the pale. I agree the potus margin is important, Donnelly needs crossover votes from Lugar lovers. High undecided vote in most polls I’ve seen, I’d don’t see those breaking D.
Florida, more likely than New Mexico (so is Ohio and Indiana to flip to D belongs under the top ten and probably under Nevada as second most vulnerable GOP seat) I’d say. Polling has been inconsistent in Florida.
If we end up having Linda McMahon to thank for 51, well that would be something.