I think the big unknown variable is how to account for turnout enthusiasm. The D+7 turnout we got wasn’t the expected turnout. Rasmussen and Pew were the most accurate, and they are split on results for this election. Without looking at crosstabs I expect a lot of it is assumptions about turnout and sampling. The only thing i’m really getting from these polls is that turnout will determine the winner.
I agree about turnout, and this is clearly recognized by both parties, which is why the big efforts to demoralize and suppress turnout.
What I wonder about sometimes is what would be the result if every legal voter in the US voted? I don’t know anymore what the ‘majority’ in the country think. What I do know is that, beyond this election, we can no longer afford to be complacent about demographic shifts.
We have not had what I consider normal demographic shifts in the past several decades. They have been driven, to a significant degree, by political decisions made by those who stand to benefit by these demographic shifts. Normal demographic change occurs more gradually, allowing bilateral cultural assimilation and avoiding the creation of homogeneous voting blocks. This is not what has been happening.