More from Morris:
So heres where the race really stands today based on Rasmussens polling:
Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). Hell probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But
Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)
Obamas lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll
Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And dont count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
The GOP field organization is better.
Thats the real state of play today.
I think I'm having election anxiety— Obama’s gotta go!
What did Dick Morris predict about the presidential race in 2008?