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To: Senator Goldwater

More from Morris:

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

That’s the real state of play today.


2 posted on 09/26/2012 9:09:53 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
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To: Senator Goldwater
Dick Morris better be right or his career is going down real fast. No excuses. He's been saying Romney will win for weeks, I hope and want him to be right. But if he's wrong, I don't want to hear his excuses how at the last minute Romney did or didn't do this or that. He seems to know what he's talking about this time around, but if he's wrong I won't take what he says seriously anymore. Are you listening Dick?

I think I'm having election anxiety— Obama’s gotta go!

5 posted on 09/26/2012 9:19:53 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: Senator Goldwater

What did Dick Morris predict about the presidential race in 2008?


8 posted on 09/26/2012 9:24:23 PM PDT by Kay
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