Posted on 09/27/2012 6:49:56 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 27, 2012
Doug mcKelway
"Don't boo, vote," President Obama often says in his stump speech whenever crowds boo a Romney plan.
The off-hand call to vote may be by design. It comes amid a precipitous decline in Democratic voter registration in key swing states -- nowhere more apparent than in Ohio.
Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from 4 years ago. Of that reduction,. 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.
"I think what we're seeing is a lot of spin and hype on the part of the Obama campaign to try to make it appear that they're going to cruise to victory in Ohio," Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost said. "It's not just Cuyahoga County. Nearly 350,000 of those voters are the decrease in the rolls in the three largest counties, Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin."
Frost points out that those three counties all contain urban centers, where the largest Democrat vote traditionally has been.
Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it's down down 19.7 percent....
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Ohio is safe.
If this is indeed the case than how is it even possible for Obama to win this Nov? Wasn’t the margin of votes he won by in 2008 less than this in Ohio?
OK, maybe I’m just showing sheer stupidity here or really tired, but how does voter registration drop like that in 4 years? Where I live in NY I don’t just drop off the voter rolls because I lack enthusiasm. Is it because a certain period of time passes when a person doesn’t vote? And I thought that was more then four years? There’s lots of dead people still on the rolls here. Don’t get me wrong, I want this story to be true, but can someone please explain? And it really shows polls are skewed as (most) are using a 2008 turnout model.
This could have a simple explanation ~ e.g. Democrats escape the incessant and annoying Robocall system used in 2008 and 2010 (and 2011) by reregistering as independents.
The Dems have bought into this system that lets them call hundreds of thousands of their followers simultaneously ~ there are a variety of Democrat party institutions that have authorization to use it, so it's not just the local candidates involved.
This system can dial you up dozens of times per day.
According to the article:
1) Removing deceased people from the rolls
2) Removing duplicate records from the rolls
3) Democrats’ drop in registered voters coincides with a gain in independent voters.
It’s not as fabulous as it appears. This is an ongoing process. Dems may make the same requests as 2008 by November 6.
Nonetheless it does appear that republicans are highly interested and making more requests thus far.
—— Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio.-——
That’s why the polls are assuming a Dem turnout three times larger than ‘08. (Eye roll)
LOL -— isn’t it amazing how a week after we get this stuff, th big blogs and Fox figure it out?
Thanks Muawiyah -
It’s because Ohio no longer has dead people voting. In 2008 we had 24,000 dead people that voted for Obama, and that was just in 2 COUNTIES!!! I figure that will account for at least a few hundred thousand in Ohio.
Could there be relation to the fact of the 2010 census figures (in some cases)? Some blue states lost population (went into red states).
Just a theory and IMO.
Freerepublic is always ahead of everybody else. Freepers rock.
Obama carried Ohio in 2008 by about 260,000 votes.
Obama could still win there this time, but he will have to figure out some way to get closer to the enthusiasm level his candidacy enjoyed in 2008.
These new voter registration numbers suggest he isn’t doing that.
Excellent!
(snip)
....in Iowa than registered Democrats – suggests that Hawkeye state Republicans can crow about a dramatic turnaround, pointing out that back in January 2009, Iowa Democrats enjoyed a 110,000 voter registration advantage.
In terms of how many voters are registered with each major party, Democrats continue to hold advantages in several key swing states, but in all of those states, their advantage is considerably smaller than it was in 2008.
In Florida, as of last month there are 4,627,929 registered Democrats and 4,173,177 registered Republicans, which amounts to a a 454,752-voter advantage for Democrats. (Keep in mind, Florida has 11.5 million registered voters, so there are a lot of unaffiliated and third-party voters.)
In 2008, there were 4,800,890 registered Democrats in Florida and only 4,106,743 registered Republicans, a 694,147-voter advantage. So while the number of voters who registered with the GOP is up from four years ago, Democrats are down roughly 170,000.
In Nevada, there are 447,881 registered Democrats to 400,310 registered Republicans, a split of roughly 47,000. (Keep in mind, the state has 1.4 million registered voters right now.) In 2008, the state split 531,317 registered Democrats to 430,594 registered Republicans, a split of roughly 100,000.
In New Mexico, as of July 31, there are 582,656 registered Democrats to 385,898 registered Republicans, a Democrat advantage of 196,758 voters. In 2008, there were 594,229 registered Democrats and 375,619 registered Republicans, an advantage of 218,610 voters.
In North Carolina, as of Friday, there are 2,778,535 registered Democrats and 2,008,609 registered Republicans, a 769,926-voter advantage. But on Election Day 2008, there were 2,866,669 registered Democrats and 2,002,416 registered Republicans, an 864,253-voter advantage. This is another state where Republicans have already gotten more voters registered with their party than the preceding cycle.
In many states, residents who wish to cast ballots must register to vote within 25 to 28 days before an election.
In Pennsylvania, as of today, there are 4,185,377 registered Democrats to 3,099,371 registered Republicans, a 1,086,006-vote advantage for Obama’s party. But as daunting as that sounds, it’s smaller than in 2008, when there were 4,479,513 registered Democrats to 3,242,046 registered Republicans, a 1,237,467-vote advantage.
(snip)
LOL, those pollsters are a hoot, aren’t they!
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