I went to the Rasmussen source page for this thread, and then browsed around a bit, ‘til I found this:
“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows the president earning 47% support to Romney’s 46%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) are undecided.”
The critical Ohio race has tightened a bit in Romney’s favor, but I was wondering, just -who- are “the other candidates” there?
If the 3% for “other” holds, or if, say, 2% of those folks stick with “other” and don’t vote for either Obama or Romney, it looks like Ohio may be “won by plurality” this time, or a VERY close majority (the kind of numbers that invite fraud in the ‘rat districts).
Historically, undecideds break about 2-to-1 against the incumbent, so of the 3%, Obama gets 1% and Romney 2%. That would bump up Obama to 48%, and give Romney 48%.
It’s the 1% (from the “other’) that will make the difference. Whoever gets the majority of that, could win Ohio by a plurality, and it will be a CLOSE plurality.
Just speculatin’ with the numbers....
Thats on the low side too, from what I remember, its like 80%, or 4 to 1 that break for the incumbent. But let me check...