Here in Massachusetts, a state that gave Obama one of his largest margins of victory in 2008, the enthusiasm for Obama is tepid at best. Yes, I see a few Obama 2012 bumper stickers out there but not a lot and definitely not like it was in 2008. I have not seen a SINGLE Obama lawn sign yet Romney/Ryan lawn signs are beginning to show up. Though I haven't seen a single Romney bumper sticker - probably because people don't want their cars keyed.
Now I'm not projecting Obama to lose here but Romney definitely has the hometown factor working for him and I think it's going to be surprisingly close - especially with the Brown/Warren senate race heating up. I think Warren has turned off so many people that Romney might benefit as a result.
With respect to presidential races, I always say to gauge the true state of the race, look to where the campaigns are spending their time and money. Romney is in PA and CO while Obama was recently in WI and VA. That tells you a lot right there.
But I'm also looking at the candidates themselves. Obama and his wife do not seem buoyant and happy these days. They are looking dour. And what's up with Obama doing late night and daytime TV talk shows? If he felt he had his base locked up, he would have no need to waste time with that nonsense. If he felt comfortable about re-election, he'd be focusing on looking presidential and he'd meet with Netanyahu instead of Letterman. Doing this kind of media is degrading for a presidential candidate, never mind a sitting president - a form of desperation. (BTW, I knew McCain/Palin were doomed when they started showing up on SNL.)
On the other hand, Romney, while no Ronald Reagan, is looking poised and confident despite the media barrage that is trying to portray his campaign as faltering and dead in the water. Even many on our side are getting nervous and even angry at this perceived lack of intensity on Romney's part. Through all this, Romney is playing it cool and not showing any signs of panic. It is for that reason that I believe Romney's internals must show him doing much better than what the skewed public polls are stating. What other reason could there be for this quiet confidence?
Therefore I can only conclude that Romney's people are focusing on fundraising for the final push and preparing Romney for the upcoming debates (which are very critical). If Romney performs strongly on Wednesday's debate and comes out of it unscathed, I think you will then see Obama's campaign start to panic and it will be game on.
Romney has a lot of campaign cash left to spend and the longer he waits to spend it, the more concentration power it will have. Remember that campaign money won't do him any good on November 7th so you know they are going to spend it between now and then.
One small correction and I hope I didn’t accidentally mislead with terminology: these are absentee ballot REQUESTS, not returned ballots. The actual ballots are not mailed until 10/2. But the numbers don’t change. It’s hard to imagine someone requesting an absentee ballot and not sending it back in.
I’m seeing the same stuff you are.
Those of us who watched the recent Olympic long distance running races, saw how the winning runner would often lay back off the lead and then turn it on in the home stretch. Being in 3rd or 4th place at the 3/4 mark in the race was not unsettling to them because they knew their strategy and had confidence in their plan. They were not insecure and had to be in the lead the whole time.
Romney knows that the attention span of the typical American voter is less than the lifespan of a fruit fly and I believe is saving the best stuff for the final push.