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I think unskewed polls is too optimistic using the Rasmussen +4.3% R party affiliation from August.

However Ras is using a +3% D it looks like.

This site was around before unskewed and changes the party affiliation more frequently and gives IMO a better view of the state of the race.

http://polls2012.blogspot.com/

They have a +.44%D which IMO is accurate, that leaves Obama at 45.76, Romney at 48.65%, with 5.59 other & undecided. Romney should get 3% of that Obama 1% and the rest to the third parties. looking at the recent polls IOW it will be a big Romney win. ~52-47% Romney.