WOW. D+5?
Look at this today from USA Today/Gallup:
USA Today/ Gallup Poll: GOP Opens Up 16% Enthusiasm Lead over Dems. The poll of 1,446 adults, taken Monday through Thursday, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
GOP regains enthusiasm edge. 64% of Reps are more enthusiastic than usual v. 48% of Dems.
In an Adult poll, Oct 14-16 2004: “Only 51% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in previous years, compared to 71% of Democrats, marking a shift from October 2004, when enthusiasm was about the same for both partisan groups.”
So, pre-election 2004, Dem and Rep enthusiasm were equal, and Republicans won
In 2008, Dem=71%, Rep=51% enthusiastic, and Democrats won
In 2012, Dems=48%, Reps = 64% enthusiastic, and who will win??
Using D+5 turnout is ludicrous.
Oops: meant to type:
“In an Adult poll, Oct 14-16 2008”
No edit key? :)
I agree using D+5 is totally ridiculous... Even Rasmussen is afraid to use R=D which is the most probable scenario on November 6 2012...
The model calculates what is the required percentage of Obama 2008 total voters to stay home in 2012 combined with the required percentage of Obama 2008 “White Voters” switching for Romney in 2012, so Romney would win a given battleground state. In this model I assumed that the percentage of participation of each RACE in 2012 the same as 2008 and I also assumed that Obama would receive in 2012 the same percentage of the Black Vote and the Hispanics Votes that he received in 2008, Romney would receive the same percentage of these two voter blocks (Blacks and Hispanics) as McCain received in 2008..
Based on the above this is what needs to happen in order for Romney to win the following battleground states:
Florida (5% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Ohio (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Virginia (8% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
North Carolina (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Indiana (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Colorado (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Iowa (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
New Hampshire (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Wisconsin ( 14% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Minnesota (12% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Nevada ( 17% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Michigan (18% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Pennsylvania (19% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012) and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012