[Hawthorn]

>> If we lose Maine and hold Nevada and Massachusetts, we need four for a tie and five for a majority. Where will those seats come from? <<

My take:

NE — ‘Pub win

MT — ditto

ND — ditto

VA — too close to call

WI — ditto

MO — Dhimmi win

OH — ditto

FL — ditto

PA — ditto

Conclusion: 50% chance for a tie, with only a 25% chance for a GOP takeover. So if Romney loses, then Biden probably casts the deciding vote in the Senate, meaning that if Scalia or Kennedy dies or retires before the 2016 election, bye-bye 2nd Amendment.

[txrangerette]

What basis do you have that Casey Jr will be defeated in PA and that Nelson will lose in FL?