Skip to comments.Swing State Daily Tracking: O47%/R45% (O48/R47 with leaners) - detailed demographic information
Posted on 09/29/2012 11:22:00 AM PDT by profit_guy
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
In the 11 swing states, President Obama earns 47% support to Mitt Romneys 45%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
The candidates have been tied or in a near tie every day but one for the past three weeks.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
When leaners are factored in, the president leads Romney 48% to 47%.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
The gender stat. looks reversed from what I have heard. More women like Romney?
What is weird about the internals here is that if you total up the men’s vote, only 45% lean Romney, while 53% lean Obama.
With women, the exact opposite is true - Women lean 51% for Romney, while only 45% for Obama.
Strange. Very strange indeed.
Just have to make sure, we get our elderly to the polls, if they have surgery scheduled, be sure and get them the absentee ballot.
If they are lifetime diehardt Democrats, and always have been, you need to remind them that this election is not about THEM anymore, it is about OUR future. We Seniors are a dying out generation, but surely they must care about their grandchildren, surely.
How do you say that in a nice way, I don't know, but it is the truth.
I’m trying to figure out the sampling D/R/I rate for this. Can anyone help me with the math? Romney is getting more Republican support than Obama is getting from the Dems, he is getting more crossover vote than Obama is, and he is winning independents, yet is down by a point?
Two more monthly jobs reports will also be coming out before the election further destroying the “economy is doing better” lie.
Romney has now maneuvered himself into a position where the common wisdom is that he must clearly knock Obama out in the first debate or he will lose the election. It matters not whether that is true, it matters that it is the perception and so the mainstream media pundits will run with it in the wake of the debates and proclaim that Romney failed his test.
Paint the opponent as a someone who misused the public trust and failed with it.
Who can believe that is actually Romney's policy when he goes out of his way to tell the world that Obama cares about the middle class etc?
State this over and over again with negative ads in the two weeks prior to the election.
An stunningly stupid strategy. The voting has already started! After the debates any ads will likely be lost in the welter of ads on television. That is no time to start a new strategy. At that point Romney must spend money to change attitudes which is very expensive when he could have spent far less money earlier on to shape attitudes. If this is his strategy, which is inconceivable, he has set himself the task of getting people to change their minds. This does not sound like Romney's policy when one considers how open his campaign has been about not telling voters they made a mistake four years ago by giving them a rationalization for voting against Obama now.
Whatever the strategy is, this is so incoherent that one can hardly call it a strategy.
Stay reasonably close until the debates.
The problem with this is that Romney must fill an inside straight on winning so many of the swing states. It does not do to stay "reasonably close" when you must sweep the board. When you have to sweep the board you need a lead you do not want to come from behind! This game is going be won or lost in the swing states and the national bulge of one candidate over another becomes less and less relevant so long as it is within a couple of points.
I have supported Romney from the beginning of the general contest. I have been careful to suggest that he has been privy to the best polling data money can buy. It is becoming increasingly difficult to believe that he is running an intelligent campaign or that he has any strategy other than to fight from a crouch hoping to garner independents by not offending them.
No one should be surprised that Romney is facing a media shit storm. It is the job of Republican candidates to cope with that. Romney has not found a way to break through and sell any affirmative message. This is an inadequate campaign.
Rope a dope never works in the political ring.
About +3 dem
And more Republicans are highly interested in the election. This will be a GOTV election. The GOP’s ground game has improved, and its voters are more interested. Romney should win.
My only thought is that Romney’s group have some other information not known to us.
That is some guy speculating on the strategy, not a strategy articulated by the campaign.
I have been careful to suggest that he has been privy to the best polling data money can buy.
However, it is becoming harder and harder to cling to this hope. We are running out of time and geography.
This poster is articulating a losing strategy. (Emphasis supplied)
Understood, sorry I misread your post.
Like McCain, it seems that Romney is only tough when he goes up against conservatives. I’m voting for him, but it makes me sick to hear him say that Obama is a “nice” guy and that he cares about the poor too. Good God - its sickening. He should be leading in the polls - instead, he’s mush mouth and trying to appeal to a small group of independents. I heard that several of his advisers actually voted for Obama. What kind of a knuckle-headed nominee would have the opposition party’s hacks in his campaign?
I want to scream at him - take off the gloves! Same thing we tried to get John McCain to do - but did he? NO! Such wimps. Newt would have destroyed the media bias by now - I wonder if Mitt is taking any advice from him? I doubt it. Mitt won’t go on any conservative talk shows either - except Hannity. And, maybe only because Sean also has a popular tv program.
If he doesn’t come out swinging soon - I fear we will lose this election and Mr. Nice Guy and family will quietly go away to one of their homes and the country will be left to suffer the misery of another 4 years of obama. If Romney cares about us - why isn’t he fighting for us?
you must be a platinum subscriber, eh?
Frankly, these numbers don’t look that great for our side.
Winning is still possible, but unless something changes in the next two to three weeks, it doesn’t look probable. We need something to to happen in our favor, and it had better happen soon.
Rasmussen’s latest numbers for a few of the states:
State - Obama / Romney
VA - 49 / 48
OH - 47 / 46
NV - 47 /45
FL - 48 /46
WI - 49 /46
MI - 54 /42
PA - 51 /39
MO - 45 /48
NC - 45 /51
CO - 45 /47
IA - 44 /47
NH - 45 /48
Rasmussen electoral college map:
Obama’s within 1 point of having Virginia in his pocket and just 2 points shy of Florida, of all places.
Remember posts from right here only a year ago (or less):
“The dog catcher could beat Obama!”
“The DOG could beat Obama!”
“The ham sandwich could beat Obama!”
If you go dig up the threads about polls, polling from 4 years ago here ...that is what will put you into full depression ..same things said about the polls then as now ....and we all know how that turned out
Leo the Lip