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“I doubt that, especially with Palin on the ticket.”

Nobody casts a vote for Vice President for the simple reason that a Vice President has no official policy making function. They are largely figureheads. Their official title is “Presdient of the Senate”, but how often does a veep ever show up there to make any sort of policy decisions? Almost never.

Your other points are well taken, but 69 million Obama voters gives a lot of pause. Turns out a significant number of them proved to be false - that’s why ACORN went into oblivion after being indicted in 15 states. Obama had “voters” apparenly living in homes that were vacant. His 2008 “ground game” had “block captains” living in each neighborhood to identify those who had moved away to another voting district, and their vacated units became home to a stunning number of non-habitating residents, all of whom somehow consistently voted for Obama from a home they never lived in. That’s the stuff not in effect now - nowhere near it. It’s like his twitter following of 18 million. A British group investigated and discovered 70% of Obama’s twitter followers don’t even exist.

I grew up in Cincinnati. Two weeks ago I was on the phone with my mom, as she was watching the local news cover Obama’s appearance there. You wanna know where he spoke? Eden Park - a public park. Say what you want about settings, this is NOT a place where you would - or even could - host a large crowd. Romney was in Cincinnati the week before, at Union Terminal, the former train station turned into a destination. Romney played to nearly 10,000 people. Obama had less than a third of that - which is why he was in the park and not the train station. So whatever he allegedly had in 2008, it’s clearly gone. The Smoke has cleared and the Mirrors are cleaned. When the POTUS shows up in the same town a week after his rival does and draws less than a third of the crowd, it can’t be good. No matter what 2008 was like.