Obama has to win PA and MI
Romney has to win OH, FL, IN, NC, VA, MO
If either candidate loses those it is very unlikely they can make it up elsewhere.
Romney should at a minimum do better than McCain so IN, NC and MO should be in the bag no matter what.
My understanding is that IN is now a Romney lock and NC is pretty safe Romney.Not sure about MO....in '08 MO was razor thin for McLame and it's hard for me to see a single state going stronger for Osama this time than last.
Which is to say: it call comes down to Romney winning in OH, FL and VA. Which is sort of where it has been now for a while.....