Posted on 10/05/2012 11:38:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
You got that right!! Mr Liar in Cheif, Ohio will never be blue again!!! Ohioians never forget! http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/02/exclusive-arwa-damon-describes-what-she-saw-in-u-s-consulate/
I just voted in person today. If the Rats were not in trouble, why did they have a plethora of campaign workers trying to hand people sample ballots with the Rat candidates marked. I just ignored the one that came up to me and walked in and voted for Mitt. By the looks of some of the clowns in there, I’m sure there are a lot of O’bomber voters.
LS has been doing excellent work too- he and Ravi are digging down and showing us the facts.
Hugh Hewitt had a guy on last night and noted 36% Catholics in PA, Highest NRA of any State, Coal and now Fracking Employees.
These 4 groups had this wonk convinced PA will go to Romney.
If so, onto MI.
I have been saying it will be where the action is since October 2010, I now think it will Obama's last desperate stand to stay in power.
We used to live in Shaker Heights. (Cleveland suburb, East Side) We got the *bleep* out of there because 0bama’s people are going to tear that city apart if he looses. I hope you and your family are prepared.
I pray that Obama just takes the occasion of his defeat to reflect... You know, live those last few months of being a presidential rock star in between golf outings and taxpayer funded vacations.
Or, he could do the other thing...
Strongsville is at the ready....
“Uh, uh, Jim you may want to move on to another topic...” -—Hussein Obammy (Debate #1)
“Va.Ohio, Florida and NC are not battlegrounds right now.”
They sure as heck are.
We have to be working like we are 5 points down because, with the media and other bias effects ... we probably are.
I am suspicious of the analysis of a single county being applied to a whole state. It doesnt work that way. Good data point, but polls are not agreeing so dont just up and assume victory.
“No amount of data from the BLS is going to change that.”
Very true. But the cooked employment numbers aren’t aimed at the people who are out of a job. They’re aimed the wavering, “Gee, I kinda sorta like Obama” voters who are looking for a good reason to vote for him.
Poll ping.
Of course I do CC everywhere West of West 65th St.
Strike that, Reverse it, EAST of WEST 65th St.
Was a professional math man for 16 years (actuary).
It is impossible to make firm predictions, due to Rs in 2008 voting for Hitlery in the primary, same for Demonrats for Romey/Akin in 2012, etc. Throw in a Demon SoS in 2008, vs. a R in 2012, and I get a 10 point swing, at least, modified by demographics giving Obama another 2, net-net Romney by 2 or more. Standard dev on the ground Oct-Nov is about 2.4% on this, so say 80% chance Romney wins Ohio, 78% chance Romney wins. But don’t bet on PA, unless Philly has a near-honest vote.
Same here in Moonbatchusetts. Zero bumper stickers are extremely rare. Zero enthusiasm for Zero.
Scott Brown will beat Fauxahontas by five. I'm beginning to wonder if he'll have coat tails.
Oh, please say that Warren will be defeated! She is one dangerous, spooky Commie.
Just an observation from the reddest of the red states - I haven’t seen any stickers or signs for either candidate in the Tulsa area, but sorry to say there are a few Obama signs in Norman, home to OU. I haven’t seen any for Mitt there.
Not that there is any doubt which way this state will go.
I am convinced that the only way to poll this election is to only call people who voted in 2008, by using their voting history information ... then screen for who is planning to vote this year ... voting this year, which cuts down and changes model. Then model the new voters, the ones who did not vote in 2008.
4 group of voters:
yes ‘08, yes ‘12
yes ‘08, no ‘12
no ‘08, yes ‘12
no ‘08, no ‘12
then you can weight by horserace McCain vs Obama to see if the first 2 groups give you the correct number by actual ‘08 vote.
this is not simply a polling problem, but require research on how many new voters to expect ..... the 18 to 21 age is all new.
Since most polls do not use actual voting lists with voting history ... most are useless, they cannot even identify which party the person belonged to in ‘08.
I think if unrest comes, the East side of Cleveland, and possibly downtown, will be worse than the West - just demographics.
That said, we’re armed and have a dog. Have friends in Strongsville and relatives in both Lorain and Geauga counties. Our house is minutes away from three interstates. My office is in Independence and would be easy to hold out in if necessary (we have a generator and a secure building in a pretty isolated industrial park).
(You can probably tell I’ve thought about this a bit...)
Worse case, we have property in rural WV, but things would have to go downhill nationally to resort to that...
Honored to reply to a post by the famous Buckhead. Thanks for 2004....
That sounds like voter fraud. Not sure its legal for anyone but you to mark your ballot.
Fox News is asking for any and all possible voter fraud to be brought to their attention. You should.
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