That said, it's looking very good, and if I'm not mistaken Bush came very close to taking WI at least once.
The problem we have here is that we passed a really solid voter ID law last year. A liberal judge in Madison struck it down and the lib judges have it bottled up in the appeals court. Our one vote conservative majority supreme court has refused to take up the case until the appeals court has had a chance to rule on it. So voter ID will not be in place for the election next month,
We do have our share of voter fraud here. The city of Milwaukee is loaded with invalid or outdated voter registrations. I think the Dem candidate can pick up a good chunk of fraud votes here.
The bigger issue we have in Wisconsin is the fact Obama is black. There is a good chance that a larger part of the black community comes out for Obama whereas they didn’t have interest in other non Presidential elections over the last two years.
For whatever reasons, the black community in Milwaukee really didn’t get energized by the Scott Walker elections. The real state money here goes to the largely white teachers and public employees and those were the motivated voters in our Walker battles.