Posted on 10/08/2012 3:05:00 PM PDT by NKP_Vet
In the first national poll to be conducted entirely after the opening presidential debate, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney now leads President Barack Obama by 4 points.
The poll, conducted by Pew Research Center from Thursday through Sunday and released on Monday, shows Romney leading Obama among likely voters nationwide, 49 percent to 45 percent. That's a stark contrast from Pew's mid-September poll after both parties' conventions, which showed Obama up 8 points among likely voters.
The dramatic 12-point swing in Pew's poll from Obama to Romney is perhaps the strongest piece of evidence to date that the president has paid a political price for his listless performance in the Denver debate. But the complete suite of post-debate surveys from national pollsters is only beginning to emerge, and the early indications are of a less dramatic shift than Pew is showing.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Pew is a liberal poll so it might be even worse than this for Bambi. Pew has to maintain credibility at some point.
“But the complete suite of post-debate surveys from national pollsters is only beginning to emerge, and the early indications are of a less dramatic shift than Pew is showing.”
I like how Yahoo qualifies this poll. If the Pew Pole had been in Obama’s favor no such qualifier would have been added. They would have been rejoicing over the lead.
Pew was, along with Rasmussen, one of the top two polls in terms of accuracy in their final 2008 presidential poll, IIRC.
I’m trying to find the actual breakdown (D/R/I) but all these commielibs just link to each other instead of the actual poll.
Rasmussen polled me yesterday. I can’t to see the results of the 10/7 poll.
next time you are polled, say you are black and all your answers will count extra.
I’d like to see if the internals changed. Also, I believe the Kenyan consistently over-polls because a sizable number of people think it’s politically incorrect to go against the second black president. And that advantage evaporates in the voting booth.
Best as I can calculate, the breakdown on the Pew poll (among registered voters) is R33.5/D32.8/I29.5.
IOW, slightly skewed towards the GOP. Pew dropped the Dem oversampling.
I don’t put any stock in polls, because I think they’ve been badly undersampling Rs for months, and based on our little OH absentee ballot project, +3 R would be about right anyway.
Pew has been wildly inconsistent in their sampling.
This is not a reliable poll. I suspect that they are some of the worst offenders in the game of trying for accuracy only in the last week of a campaign.
I don't know why they over cooked the pubbies in this poll.
That’s easy. After next debate they will skew back to more heavily Democrat and show Obama bounce.
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