Columbus is a big university town.
This election will be decided by the Paulistinian / Gary Johnson vote.
The Republican party may have died on August 24, 2012.
One thing about the “polling” indicating which candidate leads is that everyone now has caller ID - this in itself makes the results suspect. Many of us who work all day come home, look at what is clearly a political call and simply don’t pick up the phone. it is entirely possible that those who live off the dole, or those who are strongly pro-union are more likely to pick up the phone simply because they have the time to kill or feel that everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Like many people, I have gone for the last month rarely answering the phone - when I did it turned out to be a pollster. I may be wrong on this entire point, but one can’t help but wonder . . . .
This SurveyUSA poll imbeds a +6 Democrat advantage, almost as large as ‘08. Ergo, it finds that the Democrats will again win this state. But, the partisan composition of the electorate in this state swings a lot from one election to another, and we have lots of anecdotal evidence it has swung in favor of the Republicans in this election. For example, in this very poll, the Independents are strongly in favor of Romney. Historically, the partisan composition of the electorate swings along with the way the Independents vote. So, a +6 Democrat advantage is not believable.
This is HUGH and SERIES!
Actually, it is huge news. In 2008 McCain actually defeated Obama in votes cast on election day. Obama’s victory cam from the early votes where he obliterated McCain and built an insurmountable lead. If Romney keeps it tied until election day, Obama is in trouble. The GOP GOTV is fired up here in the Buckeye State.