[Chipper]

Has the party affiliaton ratio changed in the last week on all these polls? There are so many of them I don’t remember if Pew was one of them oversampling Dems. If so, are they still do it? If they are, then it will be a blowout.

[Eva]

I believe that the Democrat over sampling is continuing. What it means is that the Democrats cannot even cheat enough to pull off a win.

[NELSON111]

>>>>Has the party affiliaton ratio changed in the last week on all these polls? There are so many of them I don’t remember if Pew was one of them oversampling Dems. If so, are they still do it? If they are, then it will be a blowout.

Yes. In the PEW poll it went from a D+9 to a R+2 or 4...can't remember. Either way...it was a BIG switch so I don't trust their motives....

[NELSON111]

>>>>Has the party affiliaton ratio changed in the last week on all these polls? There are so many of them I don’t remember if Pew was one of them oversampling Dems. If so, are they still do it? If they are, then it will be a blowout.

Yes. In the PEW poll it went from a D+9 to a R+2 or 4...can't remember. Either way...it was a BIG switch so I don't trust their motives....

[tanknetter]

Has the party affiliaton ratio changed in the last week on all these polls?

Yes, but there's more to it than that. Obama's 2012 narrative was built upon the premise that Mitt Romney was a not very nice guy. Ok, that's an understatement ... the picture painted of Romney was of Ebenezer Scrooge dressed up in white sheets while carrying a bag full of children's allowance money in one hand and a burning cross in the other.

The result was a situation where people (at least until the conventions) preferred Romney on significant policy issues, but didn't like him very much. They did like Obama, but didn't like him policy-wise.

This meant that Obama's support was pretty soft. Even in the polls that wildly oversampled Dems, there were numbers indicating that a lot of Obama voters were still willing to change their minds.

So what happened? Well, with the first debate the Mitt Romney that Obama's been painting a picture of didn't show up. Instead a guy who knew his stuff AND was likeable, showed up. No Ebenezer Scrooge. No white sheets. No childrens' allowance money. And no burning cross.

At that point the Obama narrative collapsed in on itself. And it's going to be damn hard for Obama to recover because the way Romney won the first debate, and can win the next to, is to NOT be the guy Obama's been making him out to be. And anyone who thinks Romney is going to walk into the next debate wearing white sheets, carrying a bag full of childrens allowance money and a burning cross and then act like Ebenezer Scrooge by extension must believe that Obama owns a mind-control machine.