“supposedly 18% of self-identified CONSERVATIVES polled are saying they will vote for Obama. AHEM...does anyone here believe that to be an accurate reflection of reality????????”
It’s laughable on its face. Either (i) respondees are “messing” with the pollsters, (ii) some of the respondees are so cerebrally challenged that they do not know what “conservative” means, or (iii) the pollsters are cooking some of the numbers
I agree with your three choices to explain that result. And I take some comfort from the fact that even with that preposterous info, Romney still leads in this poll.
As an aside, this is the only pollster that ever called me (that reached me by the call, anyway). Back in either ‘00 or ‘04...one of times W was running, I was polled by this exact poll. I thought the caller did a professional job, but I can’t say what was done with the poll behind the scenes.
But as was pointed out, this poll has been one of the more accurate ones over time.