Thanks for that. One other item: I do not think midterm elections should be automatically dismissed from turnout projections. More often than not, the results of the midterm elections signal what is in store for the next presidential election. For example, the Republicans’ disastrous losses in the 2006 midterm election was a signal for what was in store for them in 2008.
I agree. The mid term trend is telling.
In 2002 Rs won and then won presidency and congress in 2004.
In 2006 Ds won and then won presidency and congress in 2008.
In 2010 Rs won (in a landslide) and yet it is all but ignored.