Skip to comments.Jay Cost: Politics and the Gallup Poll (Gallup caves to the left, adjusts job-approval methodology)
Posted on 10/11/2012 9:37:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Since about the beginning of President Obamas tenure, the Gallup poll has generally been one of the least positive polls for the Democratic party. This has prompted outrage and pressure from the left--even from presidential advisor David Axelrod.
Over the summer Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post wrote a critique of Gallups daily presidential job approval poll. The point of which was that Gallup was over-sampling whites and thus understating President Obamas position in the adult population. I responded by arguing that Blumenthals case was underdeveloped and less-than-met-the-eye, and that was basically where things stood.
Until, that is, this week. President Obama enjoyed a bounce in his Gallup job approval number after the Democratic National Convention, as was to be expected, but there was a twist: it did not disappear. And while Gallup on average had found Obamas job approval around 47 percent with adults through most of 2012, for the last five weeks it has been regularly above 50 percent. Yesterday, it stood at 53 percent, a number we have not really seen since 2009.
Unusual. So, what's going on? Alan Abramowitz of Huffington Post and The Democratic Strategist noticed that Gallup has increased its share of nonwhites from 27 percent the week of the convention to 32 percent last week, a nearly 20 percent boost. In other words, Gallup seemed to have tweaked its methodology with just weeks to go until Election Day to reflect the criticism that has come from the left.
And indeed, in a wonky and elliptical statement, Gallup chief Frank Newport essentially confirms the shift:
"As we began this election tracking program on Oct.1, our methodologists also recommended modifying and updating several procedures. We increased the proportion of cell phones in our tracking to 50%, meaning that we now complete interviews with 50% cell phones
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
Cellphones in the polling most-likely are Obamaphones.....DUH!
Will there be a five-point uptick in non-white voters from 2008? COUNT ON IT !!