Posted on 10/14/2012 12:10:06 PM PDT by Leto
In the wake of Barack Obama's disastrous debate performance, and clear signs that Mitt Romney is gaining momentum in the final weeks of the campaign, the media this morning are seizing on a new poll showing Obama up 2 percent in generally safe Republican Arizona, 44-42, among likely voters. For weeks, we've seen deep blue states becoming more competitive. This is the first red state showing any kind of sign of being competitive. The media obviously love this story, but that doesn't make it true.
The media believe this poll because it confirms their belief that Hispanics will turn out this fall again in record numbers and vote overwhelmingly against the Republicans.
The GOP does have a problem appealing to Hispanics in many parts of the country, due to its often over-heated rhetoric on immigration, an issue important to many in the Hispanic community.
It may be cynical to say this, but Hispanics don't vote proportionate to their numbers.
Hispanics make up about 30% of the population in Arizona. Bu only 20% of registered voters in the state are Hispanic. In 2008, a record year for Hispanic turnout, they made up just 16% of the overall electorate. The poll being hyped by the media, from Behavior Research Center, does a shifty thing: it weights its sample of interviews based on each demographic's share of the population.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Meanwhile the polls have calmed down and Romney lead has stabilized at about 6% nationally. Romney 49.84%, Obama 43.61% with 6.55% other/undecided.
Rebalanced is showing a 6.23% lead for the past 3 days.
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
Significantly this includes a 10.27% lead (46.80-36.53%) among independent in all the major polls conducted from 10/8 through today. They are showing the latest Party affiliation numbers as +1.38% R with is essentially the same as the 2010 election.
If this is correct, this turnout will also have a heavy impact on the Senate races as opposed to the 2008 party affiliation numbers being used in most of the state polls.
This looks like the CU economic prediction of 53-47% (not including 3rd parties) & 330 EV's for Romney will be real close.
IMO the MSM knows a lot of this and is spinning hoping to hold the Senate.
I figured there was something to this. Axelrod was on Fox this morning touting the AZ numbers.
Reading Nate Silver on 11/7 will be a lot of fun.
This was discussed last night.
Let’s hope. Oh numbers look good, but Ras +3d still has him down 1. Would like to breathe easy and get 3 polls showing R up 2-3 in OH.
It appears that the Behavioral Health Center is pimping the Kenyan. We’ll see how this works out for those ***holes on November 6th.
Old Daily kozer alum is the source of these polls using 2008 percentages .
He mocks and badgers and harasses anyone not following his real boss
Axelrod’s orders .Scott Ras is a fine example of Nates
Smear campaign. !
Pres Romney needs to have the FBI raid the NY Slimes office of Nate and charge him with racketeering along with Axelrod and company !
Ras has been badgered by Slover and Axelrid to
Show. +3 D ,
Even Ras internals do not justify that !
So why is he using it ???
Axelrod and Silver attacks is why
The very low turn-out rates of Latinos [and blacks] is never mentioned when we’re being lectured about our non-white future. Good article.
It would seem to me that any polls indicating that 0bama is suddenly surging in Arizona (or Florida or Viginia or wherever) is an attempt by the left, both media and political, to see if the can make Romney lose focus and redirect his resources away from the true battleground states.
I’m sure the Romney teams internals show differently and that’s how they’ll decide where to allocate their spending.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.