Posted on 10/17/2012 7:04:44 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Platinum Members can review additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.
These updates are based upon nightly polls and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s debate were completed before last night’s presidential debate. It will take a few days before the impact of that debate can be measured. Heading into the first debate, the president had a two-point advantage, 49% to 47%. Following that debate, approximately two percent (2%) of voters changed their mind, and the numbers shifted to a 49% to 47% advantage for Romney. The race has remained very close for months, and even small shifts can have a significant impact.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Obama gained one. Dang
The poll on SATURDAY will be the first Rasmussen poll that shows the full effect of the debate (if any).
It will have WED and THU, considered by some to be strong Republican days (aka weekdays) and FRI, considered by some to favor Democrats
The LAST poll to fully reflect the 2nd debate will be the one that is released next TUESDAY, the 23rd as it will have SAT, SUN and MON (the day of the final Presidential debate).
However, that poll, while providing a baseline for the third Presidential debate, will have a heavy weekend sample
Today’s swing-state #s: Obama 50, Romney 47.
WTF?
Keep telling everyone it’s close Scott. You’ll sell more newsletters and get more interviews!
I have no idea especially with NC, FL and VA supposedly firmly in Romneys corner.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_1016.pdf
“Today’s swing-state #s: Obama 50, Romney 47. WTF?”
A combined swing state poll number isn’t doing anyone any good.
You need to look at the individual states, how each one looks now, how it’s trending, and when the most recent reliable polling was done.
Having one number is pointless, whether that number has O ahead or behind.
The independents breakout is not good for Romney.
Just peaked over at the RCP site for the latest poll averages and noticed that as usual the Ras daily tracking poll is included in their averages but two recent polls that show Romney ahead by 3 -4 points were excluded, the UPI and Daily Kos polls. Anyone know why they cherry pick certain polls over there instead of including all polls? I seem to remember in the past all polls were included in their averages.
True. The “swing state tracker” is likely misleading. The MI, PA and WI components might bias this group to the net -3 negative for Romney. The composite says nothing about other states that matter: VA, OH, FL, CO, NH, IA, NC and NV, where the total spread is likely in Romney’s favor, but not enough to balance the MI, PA and WI components.
PPP does advocacy polling for Democrats. As for UPI, it was something about the methodology that they believed was suspect. Zogby in particular came in for a lot of criticism in 2008 for his practices. I don’t know if he polls for UPI or not.
Ras is including Michigan and Pennsylvania in the swing states and shows fairly large leads for Obama in those states. Conversely, in swing states where some polls have shown sizeable Romney leads (Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina) Ras shows much more modest Romney leads. Let not your heart be troubled. Romney will win both the popular vote and the electoral college vote.
“PPP does advocacy polling for Democrats. As for UPI, it was something about the methodology that they believed was suspect. Zogby in particular came in for a lot of criticism in 2008 for his practices. I don’t know if he polls for UPI or not.”
Interesting, but doesn’t the issue of methodology balance out with other polls? For example, there was a recent ABC Washington Post poll showing Obama up by three which RCP includes in their averages where the methodology possibly could be in question. The PPP and UPI poll would balance that out. I just don’t remember RCP excluding so many polls in the past, although I do recall Zogby being in question and excluded. Aside from Zogby they pretty much included all polls and let things balance out, the end result was they were usually within a point of the final election result. Just wondering if they’re doing things differently this election and excluding more polls and if so, why?
RCP refuses to explain why they use some polls,but not others.
Gallup just announced:
Romney 51%
Obama 45%
This spread is up two points from yesterday, but does not include any post-POTUS debate II results.
Earn some money here http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_VS.cfm
Quote: “Keep telling everyone it’s close Scott. You’ll sell more newsletters and get more interviews!”
No offense, but this guy has been very accurate. Anyway, if you are an incumbent and below 50% at this stage you are in deep trouble. On antoher note, I think it is great that Ras is shwoing this to be a close race. It keeps us focused and working hard.
Not a believer in “science” of polling, and also am not a believer that Ras is even a Conservative.
I want honest polling, if there is such a thing, I think NOT, but folks tell me also that Ras leans right, I am not convinced.
It`s NOT that I dish polls that disagree with me, I just do not believe in the “Science” of political polling.
It may be that the polls once they are announced become reality, the masses hear the numbers and then they say to themselves...Oh that`s what they are saying, I get it...
It may be that there is a financial reason that Ras does not want to release polls that are overly positive for republicans, perhaps it hurts his private business?
George Gallup a wonderful Christian man (now long gone) was a pioneer in polling, aside from him I trust nobody.
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