Hell hath no fury like a freshly minted convert.
Game, set, match.
54% to 46% popular vote 330+ on the EC.
My Tea Party Wonkette who is really connected says 56% 44%. Their are many here that don't think "O" will break 42%.
Regardless, your 8% spread is the same as the Scott Walker Recall.
IMHO you are smart to go with that number, since the Walker Recall was a harbenger of things to come, no one saw it....