Posted on 10/18/2012 7:27:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
It's funny what happens to a data series when consistency returns to its collection. Last week’s weekly jobless claims numbers dropped dramatically to nearly a four-year low, but later it was discovered that one large state didn't report all of its claims properly. This week, the level returns to the same range we've seen since the spring of 2011:
In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 364,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending October 6, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 6 was 3,252,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,281,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,275,500, a decrease of 5,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,281,250.
The Associated Press confirms that California bolloxed up the works, and that the data series is back on track:
Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months. The increase represents a rebound from the previous week’s sharp drop. Both swings were largely due to technical factors. …
Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008. This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week.
A department spokesman says the seasonally adjusted numbers “are being distorted … by an issue of timing.”
In other words, nothing really changed. Initial jobless claims are being created at about the same relative pace as it has for at least the last 18 months; although this is the highest number we’ve seen in the last four months, it’s not statistically significant from the series to be exceptional. This series does not provide a direct correlation to job creation, but over time this data series does have some indirect correlation to the health of job creation in the economy. What this tells us over the long term is that the labor market is still stagnant.
Amusingly, CNBC initially had this story on its breaking-news ticker with the phrase “unexpectedly rises.”
This is perhaps the most expected rise we’ve seen in this data series, thanks to the widespread knowledge of the faulty data reporting in last week’s numbers.
As Romney said in the debate 50% of college graduates can’t find jobs. that is the real unemployment rate 50%.:
http://news.yahoo.com/1-2-graduates-jobless-underemployed-140300522.html
7.8% the media says . no it’s 50% This is the number we have to hit them with. This is much worse that the “great depression”. that college kid said it in the debate that “ they tell him when he graduates there won’t be a job for him”. I Hear this all the time from college students.
America used to be the land of opportunity. Obama has killed the American dream
IMO, doesn’t matter. Zero will figure out a way to make himself look good.
Romney could win by 310EV+ by promising to make the U6 14.7% the official government unemployment rate. Let's call a spade a spade.
Reality intrudes once again.
Suspicions confirmed. This is a massive “misdirection” practiced at the highest levels.
Of all the regions blessed by a surfeit of natural resources and beneficial conditions, California should be the unparallelled leader in productivity of all the states of the Untied States.
And yet, we see this epic fail.
Expect a state like Illinois or New York to make a mistake in the not too distant future.
Expect some strange things in the area of foreign policy to happen. I mean it is Wag the Dog time.
Oooops......China hacked our report and screwed up all the numbers???.... Or the Dog ate it..........
MARKET SNAPSHOT: U.S. Stocks Fall As Jobless Claims Climb
Published October 18, 2012
| Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK – U.S. stocks declined Thursday after the government reported first-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week and as investors considered a deluge of earnings reports.
Initial jobless claims rose by 46,000 to 388,000 last week, up from a revised 342,000 the prior week, with the four-week average at 366,000, higher than the 365,000 seen the week before
That chaacter wouldn't stand a chance if I was looking to hire.
Has there been a single time during this administration when the “revised” numbers haven’t come back with a reality that’s worse than the initial phony report? Even once???
Has any media/propaganda outlet run a story to that effect?
This close to the election the left will fudge all the numbers.Now new home construction up up to a five year high.
BS developers are blowing the bubble back up,the market is flooded with unsold home.
Error made and there is no doubt that no matter what the lame reason California helped King Obama. Communists supporting communists. Now back to over 8 and should be around 11.
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