Posted on 10/18/2012 7:57:05 AM PDT by tatown
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
Romney’s edging back ahead highlights the continuing closeness of this race. Just yesterday Obama reached the 50% mark again in the combined swing states. His support ranged from 50% to 51% for the first five days of this month, but those numbers faded and Romney bounced ahead following the president’s sub par performance in the first debate. Because this survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, nearly all of the responses in the latest survey come from before the second presidential debate Tuesday night. Sunday's update will be the first in which the majority of the responses follow the most recent debate.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Pretty big move towards Romney since yesterday.
Based on where Gallup has been, it’s looking like Ras is a lagging indicator, trailing about 1-2 days in his national, then 2-3 more days behind in his state/swing-state polls. If you go by history that says OH performs at .5% above national number, Romney is at 51.5 in OH.
I agree. That is a huge swing, and it is not like any real strong Obama number would have fallen off the seven day rolling average. It had to be yesterday’s numbers that bumped it up.
All this blather about “Obama’s big debate win” is purely fantasy. The focus groups on CNN, Fox and MSNBC (of all places) all showed Romney with a big night. Polling has not shown any movement toward Obama. This is the latest media myth , and was totally predicable and was predicted almost exactly like this by Limbaugh and others.
But the media said Obama won the debate! LOL the media are big time liars
"The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin."
Putting PA and MI into the mix, at least in a normal election, is going to bias the poll a bit in Obama's favor. Those two states have 36 of the 146 total Swing State Electoral Votes. I'd like to see this poll with those states left off the list. They are NOT MUST WINS for Romney. They are for Obama.
Yes, this bodes well in that post debate two , worst case Romney debate did fine one day, and Obama didn’t see a bump in the debate. Obama may have had an outlier big day fall off, but didn’t see big post debate bump.
I don’t know what the naysayers were talking about:
I watched the first hour in which Romney won about the economy and then turned it off because:
1) Undecided voters wouldn’t have the stamina to watch more
2) The impression from the first hour is not going to be undone by the last half hour.
As you say the focus groups and economic internals of the snap polls seem to validate my thinking.
I think enough people have heard enough about and bought into the fact that Romney actually has a plan, and if nothing else it sounds fair. O’Dumbo has no plan, and all he could come up with was a tired old talking point about Romney and the rich . I really think that those paying attention and are truly undecided voters had an “AHA” the President has no clothes moment when he said that. Just M.H.O.
That's exactly why PA and MI are in the mix. Without them, Romney is probably around 52% in the swing states, and the MSM can't be reporting that right now.
“...Romney is at 51.5 in OH.”
Really hope you are correct.
The Romney lead is even bigger than this. Ras is still using a turnout model that underestimates conservative/GOP enthusiasm relative to the Rats. If anything, the Tuesday debate (complete with a corrupt moderator) p*ssed us off even more and ratcheted up further our willingness to vote. My guess is this might be an R+1 or better turnout.
they should remove NC FLA PA MI
the 7 remaining have 66 EV ... leaves both O and R at about 236. So there is a balance.
I will confess to being unsure what the real lead is but I know that the trend is our friend right now.
Agree, but even if it is +1 D in OH, Romney still wins based on Ras’s latest poll, without a SINGLE INDIE VOTE. (i.e., splitting 50/50).
Those are some big swings over the past few days. I think this is a 7-day moving average, so big swings would be unexpected.
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