2004 they just barely went Republican. The biggest gains in White Catholics. I think that goes along with what I saw in NM with the Hispanic, Democrat, Catholic population. Probably higher in the union regions too.
It seems that they might swing against the incumbent democrat this time; they swing for economic reasons.
The point is that they went republican with 52% in 2004, the few times that Catholics have voted republican have aleays been pretty narrow, and I don’t think it is based on economics, but familiarity.
With the exception of Reagan in 1980 and his veep H W in 1988, they chose the republican in his second term after voting against him in his first.