Posted on 10/20/2012 6:37:54 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate,...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
This now confirms that TUE was a bad sample day for Gov. Romney, which is ironic as that was the last sample day BEFORE the 2nd debate which the President supposedly "won" (as per the MSM narrative).
It remains to be seen how the weekend samples affect the numbers for the next 3 days. Our last baseline poll before POTUS Debate THREE will be the poll that will be out on TUE. It will include SAT, SUN and MON samples. Many believe that weekend polling is not friendly to Republicans and thus the baseline numbers may be low
So much for the big ‘bump’ today.
According to Ace of Spades HQ Romney has picked up a couple points on the Swing state polling
What about the swing state poll?
This link takes me to yesterdays report in which candidates were tied. I cannot seem to get to todays report no matter what I do. What gives? Anyone else having this problem?
You have to wonder what the 10% response rate does to the final product. Hasn’t there been strong suspicion that Rasmussen tacks so as not to appear an outlier?
I’ll take it. O stuck at 48% or lower. Plus Ras likely still using D+3 or more.
This is according to AOS: “Ras - 3 pt swing in tracking and 2 more pts in swing state. Nice.”
What is it?
Perdogg,
I don’t see what they mean by “3 point swing” in tracking.
Yesterday was R: 48% O:48%
Today is R:49% O:48%
As the O numbers remained static, that would only be a positive 1 swing for Team RR
There was only a 1 point swing in the tracking number. Where do they get 3?
There was a 2 point edge, what...3 days ago?
A good day for Romney had to have dropped as well as a bad day.
But, he’s back on top by one. Rasmussen is insisting on it being a close race where Gallup and others are saying differently.
I think he’s off a bit, and that is gut instinct due to the states moving in Romney’s direction. The only way for Obama to have countered those numbers would have been increased percentages of support by his base in his deep blue states like California, New York, etc.
I recall from the last election when he heard the criticism that he was not adjusting his rolling affiliation average often enough to keep up with a changed electorate, so he begin using a 3 week rolling, and, iirc, he’d changed from a 4 week rolling.
That and other things he’s written suggest to me he adjusts his base model of (D3 or D5, depending who you ask) by the a formula with all his adjustment categories to include affiliation. His major problem might be his USE of his belief that party ID is very steady through time with little change.
If a democrat in name only (dino) is voting for Romney or is undecided, then should the base model still say D+3 if the dinos are in great supply that election cycle?
Maybe the raw numbers were +3 then if you divide it by three day you get 1.
At the debate, Romney should take David Brooks advice ... lay off the Benghazi incident and instead focus on the “Arab Spring” uprisings leading to more Islamic governments like Iran. The preezy will be focusing his prep on defending Benghazi and the different tack will leave him unprepared.
Awesome!!! Ant $$$ to Romney and the Senate Conservative Fund. Jim Demint needs good soldiers
Swing State Tracker: Romney 50 Obama 46
Could be.
Pretty awesome on the 50-46 result for the swing states though..
Many believe it. None have shown it. Time to put up or shut up weekend polling tinhats.
Just kidding of course but this seems to me to be an urban legend, Freeper-style.
Glad to see R back up by one. Two would be better. We will break out the champagne when it gets to three.
InterceptPoint,
I agree that it has never been proven conclusively. That is why I always put “many believe” in my thoughts about weekend polling.
However, there have been instances over the summer (and I would need to pull some historical numbers) that the MON and TUE polls (which include SAT and SUN in them) have been lower than the polls for the rest of the week on Rasmussen.
Maybe somone needs to Excel sheet it and put this to rest once and for all
Your link (and mine to the Raz site) link to Rasmussen’s FRIDAY REPORT. Where did you get Saturday’s?
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