Ohio Is Closer than You Think (Superb analysis!)

National Review Online ^ | 10/20/12 | Josh Jordan

[Perdogg]

This is what I posted last week about Ohio

2008

National: Obama 52.87 McCain 45.60
Ohio: Obama 51.38 McCain 46.80

2004

National: Bush 50.73 Kerry 48.27
Ohio: Bush 50.81 Kerry 48.71

2000

National: Bush 47.87 Gore 48.27 Nader 2.73
Ohio: Bush 49.97 Gore 48.71 Nader 2.5

1996

National: Clinton 49.23 Dole 40.72 Perot 8.4
Ohio: Clinton 47.38 Dole 41.02 Perot 10.66

1992

National: Clinton 43.01 Bush 37.45 Perot 18.91
Ohio: Clinton 40.18 Bush 38.35 Perot 20.98

1988

National: Bush 53.37 Dukakis 45.65
Ohio: Bush 55.00 Dukakis 44.15

1984

National: Reagan 58.77 Mondale 40.56
Ohio: Reagan 58.90 Mondale 40.14

1980

National: Reagan 50.75 Carter 41..01 Anderson 6.61
Ohio: Reagan 51.51 Carter 40.99 Anderson 5.94

1976

National: Carter 50.08 Ford 48.02
Ohio: Carter 48.92 Ford 48.65

1972

National: Nixon 60.67 McGovern 37.52
Ohio: Nixon 59.63 McGovern 38.07

[AuH2ORepublican]

You could have kept going back through 1876 and found similar results. : )

I think Romney currently is up by 3% in OH and by 4% nationally.

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

I too live in Ohio...in the Akron, Canton, Massillon triangle. For what it is worth, I have had many phone calls backing Republican candidates and Republican issues. I have had no similar Democrat calls until last night announcing a Biden visit to the area this week.

The Obama TV ads here are all regurgated whine from his debate lies. I do not think people are buying that.

I have talked with many people, both Pubbies and Dims, and the consensous seems to be much stronger support for Romney than for Obama.

For what it’s worth, I think Ohio is not going to be in the Obama camp on Nov 6, and I also think that Romney’s margin in other ‘toss-up’ states will make any challenge ala Florida 2000 moot. Nothing short of an EO on Nov 7 declaring martial law and voiding the election could help him...but that would get him canned before Jan 20.

[Mr. Silverback]

Hopefully you’ll be able to quote Randy again on January 20: “All right, Mr. President, here we go!”

[CPT Clay]

Romney wins Ohio 51-47. You heard it here. #There’sThat47PercentAgain

[TomEwall]

Another point is in 2008 I’d be surprised if more Republicans didn’t vote for Obama then Democrats voted for McCain. This would cut the edge down even further, meaning that there was less than a 5% edge for Democrats.