Ohio is a near tie and always was, period. Anyone who believed Osama would win it by 10 points rides the short bus.
OH is no longer all that poll: given the fact that Romney has been tied or down by 1% in the last three OH polls, all three of which oversampled Democrats by ridiculous margins (the PPP poll, where Romney trailed by 1%, was a D+8 poll in which Romney won more Dems than Obama won Republicans and in which Romney led big among indies), I think that Romney is up by 3% and climbing. Another way to look at it: Romney is up by like 4%-6% in national polls with realistic samples, and the last time that a Republican presidential nominee underperformed in OH by more than 2% compared to his national vote percentage was in 1872 (Grant’s reelection). There is no way that Romney could be doing much worse in OH than he is nationally.