More And More People Are Worrying About The Electoral College Nightmare Scenario

Business Insider ^ | 10/22/2012 | Walter Hickey

[SeekAndFind]

There's been a lot of chatter lately about the plausible scenario that Obama and Romney tie in the electoral college.

The odds aren't that low.

Essentially, here's what would happen.

Provided that there are no faithless electors — people selected for the Electoral College who disregard the popular vote in their state and vote for the opponent — the election would be decided in Congress, when each state delegation votes and allocates one vote to a candidate.

The first one to amass 26 votes wins.

Here's the issue a lot of people are talking about. What if Obama wins the popular vote and the electoral college is tied?

Based on the breakdown of state delegations, and provided there aren't too many unexpected results on November 6 with congressional elections, Mitt Romney would win the vote in the house of Representatives.

David Frum at The Daily Beast raises that question:

"This moves us beyond Bush v. Gore territory into someplace even more contested and more frightening. And whereas 2000 was a low-intensity election involving a Democratic not hugely beloved by his own party base, a House contest in 2012 would unleash every passion in the American political system."

If Obama wins the popular but ties the electoral, would it even be feasible for the House of Representative to appoint the loser of the popular vote to president, politically speaking?

That would make the second Republican elected president in four cycles who lost the popular vote. And with the congressional approval rating at an insulting 10%, would the result be considered legitimate?

[SoCal Pubbie]

It doesn’t have to be tied. If no candidate gets 270 electoral votes, the election goes to the House.

[ken5050]

In the event of a tie..the next Congress decides...president is chosen by the House, by state delegations..so the GOP has that locked up..Mitt wins.. but the VP is chosen by the Senate..so if the Dems hold the Senate, then Biden is the VP..lord help us to keep Mitt safe...

[Hoodat]

Why is this a nightmare? In case of a tie, Romney wins. Assuming that Kevin Cramer wins his Congressional race in North Dakota, the new Republican House member will cancel out the entire California Congressional delegation. Alaska’s Don Young will cancel out the entire New York Congressional delegation. The Illinois Congressional delegation will be voting for Mitt Romney.

[Vigilanteman]

I've found the simplest way to explain the electoral college to a libtard is the deep and wide test. National popular vote is the deep test. The electoral college is the wide test. In case of a tie (nearly equal popular vote as in 2000), the winner is the candidate who wins the wide test.

Some of them actually accept this. If they still can't, then explain that we need to be more like Europe or Canada where the majority party in the legislature selects the head of state. That really makes their head explode.

Then explain that Maine and Nebraska have a modified system-- one electoral vote awarded for the winner of each congressional district, two awarded for each statewide winner.

[MrB]

You’re close to the idea that I had.

Instead of by county, though, I’d suggest by congressional district, since that’s how 435 of the EVs are apportioned anyway.

[Atlas Sneezed]

The odds aren’t that low.

---

Bull.

Assuming that the election really is close (and Romney doesn’t have the apparent swing state edge), we have, say, 10 states that could swing either way. If anyone one of them swings differently, the tie scenario fails to happen.

10 coin tosses is 1 in 1024 odds.

Even 5 swing states, and all the rest solidly locked to the tie scenario (which is an absurd assumption) is 1 in 32 odds.

This is interesting, but not news.

[stuartcr]

We liked it the last time this happened...

[Buckeye McFrog]

If the Electoral College ties then the House gets to decide, and Romney will be the winner. Case closed. 100% Constitutional.

The Left will cry and whine and scream and burn things, but it won’t change anything.

[woodbutcher1963]

This artilce/map has a forgotten that Romney will get ONE electoral vote from MAINE. That breaks the tie.

Therefore: Romney , WINNER, WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER !

[jocon307]

“The chances of Obama winning the popular vote are slim and none.”

Right, so the whole premise of this article is stupid. It is more likely that Romney would be in the Al Gore position than Obama would be.

You know, I know Gore is a jerk and I was glad Bush prevailed (I even sent money to him for that recount effort - or whatever you want to call it), but I still feel bad for Gore about it. It must have been really maddening.

[Ancesthntr]

This scenario is, as many have said, unlikely.

First, Virginia is pretty much a gimme for Romney at this point. Also, as one poster mentioned, it is highly unlikely that Romney would win Ohio AND lose VA. Of course, Romney might lose Oiho, not knowing where that state is located, and not having campaigned there. :>)

Colorado is also looking like a Romney winner - Drudge has him up by 4 there, and undecideds usually vote for the challenger.

Quite unsaid here is that Maine is almost certain to give Romney 1 EV. If the EV vote is as tight as mentioned in the map provided, that 1 vote will make the difference.

I also share the view that Obama won’t win the popular vote. He is down by 22% in the South, a Romney lead that is hard to overcome (especially with the Mountain West probably being just as lopsided in his favor).

However, the only real “nightmare scenario” is one in which Obama takes the oath of office on 1/20/2013. All others we can deal with, including nationwide rioting. Regarding the credibility of Congress, it is so low now that it really can’t go any lower, so who cares?

[SoFloFreeper]

Except Obama is going to lose Colorado. And Ohio.

These panic mongers are the ones who, just a month ago, were assuring us Obama was going to win.

Obama’s unpopularity is VASTLY underreported. The media RARELY mentions how underwater he is with nearly EVERY demographic.

[MrB]

In order to mitigate the “riot factor”, Mitt needs to win decisively, and not surprisingly, either.

The 0zombas must go into election day with the clear understanding that their guy is not likely to win.

[SoFloFreeper]

Oh yeah, and Obama is going to lose Virginia too.

[Verginius Rufus]

Gore wouldn't have been close enough to demand a recount in Florida if the media had not falsely claimed he had won Florida while polls were still open in the Panhandle (Central time zone) which is estimated to have cost Bush 10,000 votes. Gore did not get a majority of the popular vote, just a plurality. Bush could have lost the election in 2004 if there had been enough voter fraud in Ohio for Kerry to take that state, even though Bush had an actual majority of the popular vote.

I think if there is a tie the Obama people will bribe or blackmail one Romney elector into voting for Obama. The traitor would be richly rewarded but might have to go to Venezuela to live.

[SoFloFreeper]

538 votes...the idiots in DC get three. I think those ought to be taken away and the DC voters put in either Maryland or Virginia precincts. The founders never meant for DC to become a permanent residence for the citizenry, otherwise they would have allocated electoral votes for it from the beginning.

There would be worse things than repealing the 23rd amendment.

[edwinland]

Excellent point. I never thought of that.

[Just another Joe]

Professor Joseph Olson of Hemline University School of Law, St. Paul , Minnesota , points out some interesting facts concerning the 2008 Presidential election:

Number of States won by: Democrats: 19 Republicans: 29
Square miles of land won by: Democrats: 580,000 Republicans: 2,427,000
Population of counties won by: Democrats: 127 million Republicans: 143 million
Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by: Democrats: 13.2 Republicans: 2.1

Professor Olson adds: “In aggregate, the map of the territory Republicans won was mostly the land owned by the taxpaying citizens of the country. Democrat territory mostly encompassed those citizens living in government-owned tenements and living off various forms of government welfare...”

Olson believes the United States is now somewhere between the “complacency and apathy” phase of Professor Tyler’s definition of democracy, with some forty percent of the nation’s population already having reached the “governmental dependency” phase.

[stylin19a]

What if Obama wins the popular vote and the electoral college is tied?

Assuming not all the compact states go blue, does anybody think they will try the compact ?
Compact States ...

1 Maryland 10 April 10, 2007
2 New Jersey 14 January 13, 2008
3 Illinois 20 April 7, 2008
4 Hawaii 4 May 1, 2008
5 Washington 12 April 28, 2009
6 Massachusetts 11 August 4, 2010
7 District of Columbia 3 December 7, 2010
8 Vermont 3 April 22, 2011
9 California 55 August 8, 2011
Total 132 (48.9% of the 270 EV need