More And More People Are Worrying About The Electoral College Nightmare Scenario

Business Insider ^ | 10/22/2012 | Walter Hickey

[SeekAndFind]

There's been a lot of chatter lately about the plausible scenario that Obama and Romney tie in the electoral college.

The odds aren't that low.

Essentially, here's what would happen.

Provided that there are no faithless electors — people selected for the Electoral College who disregard the popular vote in their state and vote for the opponent — the election would be decided in Congress, when each state delegation votes and allocates one vote to a candidate.

The first one to amass 26 votes wins.

Here's the issue a lot of people are talking about. What if Obama wins the popular vote and the electoral college is tied?

Based on the breakdown of state delegations, and provided there aren't too many unexpected results on November 6 with congressional elections, Mitt Romney would win the vote in the house of Representatives.

David Frum at The Daily Beast raises that question:

"This moves us beyond Bush v. Gore territory into someplace even more contested and more frightening. And whereas 2000 was a low-intensity election involving a Democratic not hugely beloved by his own party base, a House contest in 2012 would unleash every passion in the American political system."

If Obama wins the popular but ties the electoral, would it even be feasible for the House of Representative to appoint the loser of the popular vote to president, politically speaking?

That would make the second Republican elected president in four cycles who lost the popular vote. And with the congressional approval rating at an insulting 10%, would the result be considered legitimate?

[SeekAndFind]

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO:

[Jewbacca]

The chances of Obama winnng the popular vote are slim and none.

The chances of him winning the electoral college are not great, but very possible.

[FewsOrange]

It is possible but I don’t think an Ohio/Romney, Virginia/Obama combination is very likely.

[The Great RJ]

To my knowledge there has never been a tie in the electoral college in more than 200 years. Possible yes, but I just worry more that Obama is voted out period.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: The chances of him winning the electoral college are not great, but very possible.

______________________

AND *THAT* IS THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.

WITH THAT, WE GET ANOTHER 4 YEARS OF OBAMA EVEN IF MOST AMERICANS DON’T WANT HIM AS PRESIDENT.

[kidd]

It is a “nightmare scenario” only if Obama is re-elected POTUS.

[ari-freedom]

Media’s dream come true

[Mouton]

Statistically possible but as probable as a comet hitting the US on election day.

Figure most of the states where His Excellency is more than a point below 50% will go for the challenger. Being undecided now means they cannot stand the jerk and will either not vote or vote for Romney. That would make it not so close in the final tally.

By my reckoning, if the election were held today, Romney would garner at least 275 votes so while it is close, it is good by to his majesty. Following the bunch out of DC will be like the guy who cleans up after the circus parade has gone by.

[carumba]

So little time, so much to redistribute.

[anoldafvet]

How can there be a tie in the Electoral College when there are 535 votes? You can’t divide 535 and come out with an even number or am I missing something?

[T-Bird45]

Interesting map...my response is three-fold: to make sure I can find this map for comparison after Election Day and to point out there are articles on the current first page of FR that call both CO and VA into question for the blue coloration on this map. Thirdly, the map is interesting when considering the land mass differences between red and blue.

[MrB]

DC gets 3 EVs

[TomGuy]

The chances of Obama winnng the popular vote are slim and none.

Right.

Most polls show him in the 43% to 47% range. Unless a third entity is syphoning off massive numbers, Romney seems to be polling in the 47% to 53% range.

Regardless, the presidency is based on States, not general national population. That is why the Electoral College, as convoluted as it seems, was established -- to provide states will lesser populations a voice and keep them from being muted by states with larger populations.

If the 'popular vote' movement ever took over, states like NH, DE, VT, NM, WY, MT, and similar low-population states would have almost negligible involvement or influence in national elections. Instead, NYC, LA, Denver, Chicago, Phoenix, and other cities with large populations would 'own' the elections. Of course, most liberals live in -- those large cities.

Every day we should thank G_d that our Fore Fathers were more intelligent than most of those trying to run things currently.

[MrB]

Not only does the EC recognize state sovereignty,
it protects against voter fraud.

No matter how much fraud is perpetrated in the high population cities, they can only affect the number of EVs that their state has, not the entire country.

[The Sons of Liberty]

What about those states, Maryland I believe was one, that vowed to cast their electoral votes for the national popular vote winner? (I suspect that was only if it worked out for the dims.)

[dforest]

I won’t worry about it unless or until it happens. Get out the vote and make sure it doesn’t.

[TomGuy]

How can there be a tie in the Electoral College when there are 535 votes? You can’t divide 535 and come out with an even number or am I missing something?

Partly because some states allow their EV to be split up and partly because the non-state of DC has 3 EVs.

[plain talk]

What is frightening is this author's premise. He is worried that people would not accept a constitutionally proscribed process as “legitimate”. That is what is frightening to me.

[Vigilanteman]

535 + 3 = 538 = possible tie of 269/269.

Simplest solution would be to add one more congressional seat. Better solution is for Americans to wake up and realize that even if they are a taker, there is more to loot from a growing prosperous country than from one where poverty keeps being divided.

[TomGuy]

Not only does the EC recognize state sovereignty, it protects against voter fraud.

No matter how much fraud is perpetrated in the high population cities, they can only affect the number of EVs that their state has, not the entire country.

With regards to the 'popular vote' movement, others could push for a 'counties' movement. The candidate winning the most counties gets the EVs. In most recent elections, the GOP candidates have won more counties, thus more geographical area, nationwide, than the Dems, who tend to win the bigger cities.