Posted on 10/22/2012 7:18:57 AM PDT by chessplayer
From you mouth to God’s ears! I truly hope you are right but like anything else, my opinions are the equal of anyone’s. The only opinion that counts comes on Nov 6th.
If Romney takes Pa, the election will be over as soon as that result is posted, no matter what transpires elsewhere, same for Michigan as either will protend a defeat for His Excellency. I’ve got my fireworks all set to go if that happens.
Not sure what the nervousness is over this poll.
It’s a joke.
It way oversamples Dems (+9) and in addition to the D+9 it uses a ridiculous party breakdown of only 26% Republicans. Even in the worst election for Repubs, it was 31%.
Ohio is a tie, at worst.
You sure that's in all their polls or just the 7-day Rolling?
I agree, Obama loses PA its over, and if he loses PA, given that frankly there hasn’t been an ad I’ve seen on TV here for either candidate for months, Obama is going to lose states no one is even talking about.
I guarantee the news orgs will hold off calling MI,PA, OH and FL as long as possible if its clear Romney has won them , even though they will know the race is over, in hopes of some miracle... but its not going to happen.
They may even try that call FL early to repress the panhandle nonsense like they did a few elections back. Don’t buy into it folks.. GOTV no matter what they say on TV election night... VOTE.
Fight like its 50-50 and GOTV!!! but don’t kid yourself, Obama is going to get crushed and frankly I think he’s known this for months and planning for it... the entire election is just bread and circuses.
The southern Ohio coal belt has had a dramatic turn around. This region which was about fifty/fifty in 2008, is now 70/30 Romney. This is a turn around of over sixty thousand votes. This phenomena is not being accurately factored into polls with current models and techniques. This may be the key to the election.
It is even worse than that. If you examine their internals, they actually weight Republicans DOWN by a percent or two and Dems up. The actual number of raw calls were to 27.2% GOP and 34% Dem. They weight the Dems up 1% and the GOP down almost 2%. Now, they did not do it that way, I am sure they tried to weight by gender or some other demographic and that caused the weight on their raw numbers by party affiliation to actually get more skewed. When I corrected for party affiliation, Romney is up by 1.5%. I used a D+2 weighted sample.
“Romney/Ryan signs and bumper stickers outnumber Obama/Biden by 2 to 1.”
Unfortunately, that’s not true in my area of Northern Summit County. It’s about 3 to 1 favoring obie and bite me.
One of those states no one is talking about is Oregon.
All their polls..you can find it online..if you want to check..
Obama sure is popular amongst the bisexual/bulldyke-feminist-baby murderer crowd, isn’t he?
Obama has single handedly destroyed the Coal Industry, RR company today announced 200 layoffs because they are moving less coal.. the very IDEA that Obama had a prayer in the rust belt was laughable from day one.
You can’t piss in the face of hte blue dogs for 4 years and then think you will carry the rust belt... Not to mention double up the damage by attacking the Catholic church.
Obama never had a prayer in the rust belt.. no rust belt state without a large city will remotely go Obama... He’ll lose them all, and lose them all by solid margin.
Obama never had a prayer at OH,IA,IN,or WI. PA and MI are clearly in PLAY. MN and IL are probably only “safe” states for O.. and if he loses one of those, its not going to be a landslide, its going to be a slaughter.
I am telling you. PA may go Romney. The signs are really coming out this past weekend. And it is easily 15-1 Romney signs in Montgomery County- 5 minutes outside of Philly. Same with Bucks. In fact, I counted more Romney signs than Obama in the Chestnut Hill section of Philadelphia! This is the complete opposite of 2008.
A poll that Romney is not winning is a not reliable. The only polls that are 100 percent accurate are Romney wins only. That seems to be the verdict around here.
I wanted hanging chads with that.
I was in the Lehigh Valley for my 25th High School Reunion this past weekend and I saw a ton of Romney/Ryan signs. I only saw TWO Obama signs and as I drove back to Maryland, I did not take the turnpike but went the scenic route through York and Langcaster and other places and Romney/Ryan signs were everywhere. There were a ton of Dent signs, but not too many Smith signs though.
I was in the Lehigh Valley for my 25th High School Reunion this past weekend and I saw a ton of Romney/Ryan signs. I only saw TWO Obama signs and as I drove back to Maryland, I did not take the turnpike but went the scenic route through York and Langcaster and other places and Romney/Ryan signs were everywhere. There were a ton of Dent signs, but not too many Smith signs though.
This site lets you look up individual voters’ registration in FL, OH and PA and it also shows you stats like party weighting by district. Might be interesting to see if heavily Dem districts have a lot of Romney signs.
http://www.politicalstrategies.com/VoterSearch.aspx
Thirteen of Ohio's eighteen House seats are currently held by Republics.Does that undeniable,and powerful,fact suggest to you that Rats currently hold a nine point edge over Republicans in the state?
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