On October 20, in 1992, Gallup had Clinton beating Bush by 13 points. That was down, mind you, from 25 points.
Clinton got 43% on Election Day - got 3+ over the last poll in October 1992. Romney will be up by 2+ over this poll on Election Day. If Obama melts down tonight, NJ, MI, WA and OR could come into play but I don’t expect that to happen.
All Romney needs to do put in a good performance tonight and the rest will take care of itself.