One more tidbit from the Suffolk internals (they are really good at publishing all of their data): in this pool of 600 Likely voters, 47% of them voted for Obama in 2008, and only 41% voted for McCain, with 10% not voting or refusing to answer. Given that 2008 was an historic, “change” election that would have pushed Democrat turnout to record highs, the odds are good that those persons saying they will vote this time but did not vote for Obama in 2008 are not going to show up to pull the lever for him this time - most of them, I would bet, will vote for Romney.
Yes and I think Dem enthusiasm is at an ebb low right now. I've never seen anything like it. I'm in a township, city, and county that always vote Dem. Four years ago there were Obama signs everywhere. It was distressing just to drive through the neighborhood. Now there isn't a single Obama sign. No signs for any Dem candidate. None along the roads, on phone poles, nada.
Four years ago OFA was everywhere. No sign of them this year although a local progressive group is handing out propaganda. No sign of a conservative ground game but robocalls are so frequent it's obnoxious.
I question the accuracy of most polls this year because of the unprecedented level of bullying we've seen from the administration and other dems in power. I suspect many voters are reluctant to give their political views to a stranger on the other end of the phone.