Skip to comments.Poll: Obama's lead in Ohio narrows(Quinnipiac U. O 50% R 45%)
Posted on 10/22/2012 1:27:02 PM PDT by Red Steel
President Obama is holding on to a five-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio, but that margin has been cut in half since September, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll.
Mr. Obama holds a 50 to 45 percent lead over Romney among likely voters in the Buckeye State, down from a 53 to 43 percent advantage on Sept. 26. Three percent of likely voters there are undecided.
A gender gap persists: President Obama still has a double-digit advantage among women, 55 to 40 percent (down from a 60 to 35 percent lead in the September poll), while Romney leads with men.
The president enjoys a 15-point lead with women, while Romney is ahead by seven points among men, 51 to 44 percent, virtually unchanged from last month. Mr. Obama has a nearly two to one lead with unmarried women, but married women are more divided in their vote preferences.
While seniors were split in their support last month, they are now backing Romney over the president, 51 to 44 percent. Young voters still support President Obama by a large margin.
Romney has made some inroads with independents; he now leads among this group by seven points, 49 to 42 percent. Romney had a one-point advantage among independents in September.
"October 22, 2012 - Women Put Obama Up 5 Points In Ohio, Quinnipiac University/CBS News Poll Finds Democrat Sherrod Brown Up 9 Points In Senate Race
Riding a wave of strong support among women, President Barack Obama holds a 50 - 45 percent lead over Republican Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll released today, half the 53 - 43 percent margin he held when Quinnipiac/CBS News/the New York Times surveyed Buckeye likely voters September 26.
This latest Quinnipiac/CBS survey shows a wide gender gap as President Obama leads 55 - 40 percent among women while Gov. Romney leads 51 - 44 percent among men. Whites back the Republican 51 - 44 percent while blacks go Democratic 91 - 5 percent. Voters with college degrees are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Voters without degrees back Obama 52 - 43 percent.
Support shifts dramatically with income as voters making less than $30,000 per year go Democratic 60 - 34 percent while voters making more than $100,000 go Republican 53 - 45 percent.
Independent voters back Romney 49 - 42 percent.
"The good news for Gov. Romney is that he has sliced President Obama's lead in Ohio in half in the last month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The bad news for Romney, and the good news for Obama, is that no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio and the challenger is running out of time to make up the remaining difference."
In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a 51 - 42 percent lead over State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger.
In both the presidential and U.S. Senate races, the roughly 20 percent of those who have already cast their ballots said they backed the Democratic candidates by a larger margin than the overall survey respondents. Among early voters, Obama leads 54 - 39 percent, while Sen. Brown leads Mandel 57 - 36 percent.
"President Obama won 46 percent of the white vote in Ohio in 2008 when he carried the state by five points. Romney probably needs to hold Mr. Obama to less than 40 percent of the white vote if he is to win Ohio, and he has a ways to go at this point," said Brown.
One key reason for Obama's lead in Ohio could be that Buckeye voters are more optimistic about the economy than most of their counterparts around the country. The state's unemployment rate is below the national average and voters there are aware of their enviable situation. By 37 - 36 percent they split on whether the national economy is getting better or worse, but by 46 - 22 percent they believe the state's economy is improving.
"It's more difficult for Romney to come into Ohio and say the economy is doing poorly and it's Obama's fault when voters there think things are getting better by more than two-to- one," said Brown. "When things are going well, voters tend to support incumbents just as they punish them in bad times, as is happening in much of the country which is struggling economically."
Romney and Obama tie 48 - 48 percent when voters are asked who can best handle the economy. Romney is better on who can best can handle the budget deficit, while Obama is better able to deal with other major problems facing the country. Romney is seen as a strong leader 64 - 32 percent, compared to 58 - 40 percent for Obama. But voters say 60 - 37 percent that Obama cares about their needs and problems, compared to 50 - 45 percent who say Romney doesn't care.
By sizable 48 - 27 percent margin, voters say President Obama won last week's second debate between the two candidates and 85 percent say they plan to watch or listen to tonight's third and final debate, which they expect Obama to win 40 - 31 percent.
"The good news for Romney is that just as before the final debate, voters expect Obama to win the rubber match, and the candidate with the lower voter opinion so far has won the two previous debates," said Brown.
From October 17 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,548 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters)"
Is this crap?? If true, it sucks!
Ohio will go for Romney.
This sample is D+9
Yes they sure are. It is from the kiddies from Q. U and cBS. Look at their summary of demographics.
A Word doc -
Yes, Romney is winning in this poll too since these clowns weighted their polls incorrectly.
.......... .... Weighted UnWeighted
Republican 26% 432
Democrat 35 533
Independent 34 522
Other/DK/NA 4 61
—— This sample is D+9 -——
Because Zero voters are sooooo enthusiastic this year.
I’m feeling good.
Ridiculous turnout model! Do they really plan to cheat that much?
41 million national Tea Party members (or more) NONE of whom has ever been polled or can be polled... many of which are in Ohio may differ with those counts..
Shuuush.. and “they” also conveniently forget the 2010 election...
GOOD.. let them forget.. I want to see Obama so thoroughly discredited by this election the “progressives” may never recover..
AND hopefully the black cultural morass will be SLAPPED into reality..
and will question their 70% abortion statistic and more than 80% single family parent statistic..
That and IF the republicans do not go after and prosecute vote fraud with extreme harshness they should also be removed in 2016..
According to the Ohio Secretary of State:
And Dems are sampled +9?
If weighted properly, wouldn’t Romney be up by 5?
Obama is done-seniors vote.
Wow. The Unweighted sample was
That was a D +6.5 unweighted sample, which tilts more Democrat than the actual vote in 2010 or 2008 in Ohio. ... which they then WEIGHTED to get to D +9!
OMG. That is absurd.
So take 2.5% off the top as a bogus poll bias. Take another 2.5% off because the sample is skewed... garbage pollaganda.
The race is actually even or Romney up a bit in Ohio. That’s the real story here.
Hopefully they will run ads about President Obama’s war on coal.
Yeah, I've been saying for years now that Quinnipiac U. love their DemBot garbage polls.
Survey taken Sat Oct 20, noon-4pm in Franklin County (during Ohio State football game).
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