Posted on 10/23/2012 5:05:35 AM PDT by thackney
Analysts say that the Utica Shale, which is nearly equal to the size of the Eagle Ford play in Texas could become the third-largest shale play in the United States, producing as much as 250,000 to 500,000 barrels of oil a day. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources estimates that the Utica’s potentially recoverable reserves could range from 3.75 TCF of gas and 1.31 billion barrels of oil to 15.7 TCF gas and 5.5 billion barrels of oil.
In comparing the Utica to the Eagle Ford, the following: TVD in the Utica can be as shallow as 4,500 feet versus ~ 6,000 feet in the Eagle Ford, recovery factor can be 5% versus 4%, formation thickness 140 feet versus an average of 100 feet and porosity of 8% versus 5-8% in the Eagle Ford.
With regard to activity and players here is what's happening so far:
* Chesapeake holds more than 1 million net acres in the Utica and is by far the most active driller with a total of 87 wells with plans to finish 2012 with 15 operated rigs. They have significant funds to support their development through the end of 2014 thanks to the remaining drilling carry from their January 2012 joint venture with Total.
* After Chesapeake released data for five wells drilled in Carroll and Harrison Counties in the Utica/Point Pleasant play earlier in the year, everyone took notice. Their Buell well IP was 9.5 MMCFED of gas, 150 BD of condensate, and 1,275 BD of NGLs for a total of 1,040 BOED.
* Then came Gulfport Energy's Wagner 1-28H well in Harrison County producing 14 MMCFED of dry natural gas and 1,881 BD of natural gas liquids (after processing) along with 432 barrels of oil, significantly higher than the IP rate of Chesapeake's Buell well. Gulfport plans to drill 200 wells in the area in the next four years.
* There are other big players here also: BP has invested, then there’s Hess and CONSOL who entered into a 50/50 joint venture a year ago valued at almost $600 million to fund their drilling and development across 200,000 acres.
And there is more activity when it comes to deals taking place in the Utica involving acquisitions and infrastructure as indicated by the following examples:
* EnerVest Ltd. amassed a huge collection of Utica drilling rights beginning in 2003 with plans to harvest their investment. Accordingly they plan to sell drilling rights to about 70% of this acreage and retain slightly more than 200,000 net acres whose potential will be determined in the future. It's estimated this sale could generate more than $6 billion.
* In September Spectra Energy, EnBridge and DTE Energy formed a Utica pipeline joint venture with plans to commence operations by late 2015 depending upon demand at that time. Total investment for this new pipeline system is estimated at $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion.
* Also in September NiSource and Hilcorp Energy announced a joint venture to construct their Pennant Midstream gathering pipeline infrastructure with NGL processing in Northeast Ohio/Western Pennsylvania. Reportedly it will cost around $300 million.
Summary: There are more announced (and unannounced) deals and plans that will be adding to Utica momentum, supporting a transition from early-stage to a bigger development opportunity that will probably rank with the big shale plays in the future. It will depend, of course on continuing investment by larger players like Chesapeake, Hess, BP, CONSOL and others plus the near-term economics of crude oil and liquids to affirm a logical path forward in Utica development.
And check out this report:
Oh no, we’re running out of fossil fuels!
Let’s clothe ourselves in ugly windmills.
Anyone interested in this thread should read this report (multiple PDF files of report and various appendices).
Thanks much!
....also the Green River deposit....has estimate 3 trillion barrels....as big as the current known rest of world reserves....
The cost I mentioned is compared to the minimal cost of essentially drilling a hole and capping the well, which is what the Saudis essentially have to do. Till now.
Fracking may be quite low-cost compared to deep sea drilling and some of the other high-cost ways of getting oil.
My only point is that fracked oil won’t be “cheap.” We’re very unlikely to go back to $20/barrel.
Tried to find some info on cost/barrel for fracked oil vs. Saudi production. Did not succeed. 95% of information easily available out there is just about how evil and inefficient in the long run fracking is.
IOW, it’s produced by opponents who just want ammo to stop the practice. They could conceivably be right, but there obvious bias means their info must be taken with a major dose of salt.
I dunno. My sense is that it might indeed happen.
"Tried to find some info on cost/barrel for fracked oil vs. Saudi production."
I suspect friend Thackney can probably clue us both in on those numbers.
Are you trying to say they will spend billions to do that?
The surplus will drive energy prices down
The price of oil is the primary driving point for the price of gasoline. Existing refineries running or re-opening are not going to drive down the price of oil. The margin of gasoline over crude oil is thin and not expected to significantly decrease.
Okay, here’s your billions:
You are most welcome. Please share the good news far and wide!!!!!!!!!
While that statement is likely true in being capable of stretching far enough to cover that distance, I believe the typical horizontal well is normally only going to reach 1/2 mile to 1.5 miles, maybe 2 miles. The economics get much more expensive trying to reach significantly farther with few and much more expensive rigs available to reach multiple miles horizontally underground.
I believe the typical economics are not so much of replacing many vertical wells with a single horizontal. The main reason they are used in the shale plays is the vertical wells can rarely produce enough, long enough in time to be economic.
So instead of replacing a dozen vertical wells, they allow production in a field that would not be economic without horizontal steerable drilling.
I'm pinging Smokin' Joe to see if he agrees. He knows this side of the business more than I. Most of my work comes after the drilling is in place and the production facilities are being built.
Nison was never a conservative: he wanted the love of the liberal establishment. He was demonized becausse he was outing the COMMUNISTS in the Roosevelt and Truman administrations. They never forgave him no matter how many liberal programs he came up with: including the EPA. And then he tries fixing prices???? How stupid.
That is not an oil refinery. Nor is it one of the existing oil refineries you mentioned.
That facility is taking Natural Gas liquids, primarily ethane, and converting to feedstock for the chemical industry.
The following has more information from the Shell web site. Shell calls the facility a petrochemical complex. A few media types have mistakenly called it a refinery. It will not accept crude oil and it will not produce gasoline, diesel or fuel oil; it is not a refinery.
I agree with your first statement about billions of dollars being spent to expand our domestic chemical (including petrochemical) industry. I do not agree that there is much in the way of oil refinery expansion currently being planned. There is some expansion/upgrades planned at a couple of refineries in Texas to accept more of the light oil from the Eagle Ford versus the heavier oils currently imported from overseas.
I’ve been waiting to see you on FreeRepublic to ask your opinion on something.
BP is running the pipeline from the WA refineries at half capacity, the refineries are out of storage capacity and the crude is backing up at the docks? What’s going on? price manipulation?
Which pipeline?
the refineries are out of storage capacity and the crude is backing up at the docks?
BP's Cherry Point Refinery in Washington had a fire that caused a three month shutdown. It caused a lack of ability to process as much crude for quite a while.
What’s going on? price manipulation?
I have never found an oil company outside of OPEC that was willing to shut anything down so their competition who remained running could make more money.
I stated that cheap energy will transform America. It will save our economy.
Here’s the report:
Enjoy. Be happy that cheap energy is the simple solution.
I read the report. I agree cheap energy builds our economy and also was a significant part of our past successes.
The only point I took exception with that you made was about the refineries. That is not part of that report, it deals with the production of Natural Gas.
I believe we mostly agree. I’ll quit beating the horse.
BP is back to 100%. BP manages the pipeline for ALL the refineries, but it is only operating at 50% capacity. The ships are backing at at the docks with crude, with no explanation. It’s making a lot of extra work and costing a lot of money.
I’ve never seen it before, either. That’s why I’m asking what you think.
Here’s the info on Philly oil refinery:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/02/us-sunoco-carlyle-philadelphia-idUSBRE8610JF20120702
It’s direct result of the Marcellus. In the article it mentions another one that was saved too.
Money quote:
“The US East Coast plants certainly have better prospects than their European competitors and the growth in US domestic production of crude and natural gas is improving those prospects further,” said John Auers, a refinery expert with Turner Mason in Houston.
I guess you think this horse still has legs.
The Marcellus is helping to keep Natural Gas prices low for furl and power to the refinery. Domestic cheaper crude from the Midwest to the Bakken helps the economics of keeping the refinery running.
I don’t see them spending billions of dollars to expand. According to the article you linked, most of there upgrades are related to clean fuels and “green” initiatives, not items to bring the price of fuel down. See below:
Philadelphia Energy Solutions plans to construct and upgrade units at the plant, moves that could help the refinery meet new lower sulfur fuel requirements for home heating oil in the region.
The joint venture plans to convert a middle distillate hydrotreater into a mild hydrocracker and construct a natural gas-based hydrogen plant to produce greener fuels. In addition, they plan to upgrade the plant’s catalytic cracker to improve performance and reliability.
I was thinking more in terms of being able to go north/south/east/west from a single insertion point. Two miles in all those directions is covering a LOT more volume than two miles straight down. I suspect, as usual, that there are a spectrum of possibilities, some already exploited and some not yet so.
You need to take a peek at the report posted by SC_Pete. The economic numbers are staggering. Texas will be adding 100 BILLION dollars a year to its economy by 2035 due to "unconventional" oil and gas (if I'm reading that table right).
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