Skip to comments.(October 4, 2012 Reprise)Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney
Posted on 10/23/2012 10:14:26 PM PDT by TigerClaws
In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Too good not to repost!
In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican—a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican—only a five point gap.
Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State’s efforts to clean up voter rolls has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the majority were Democrats
The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.
—Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP - 20 point shift.
—Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP - 18 point shift.
—Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP - 15 point shift.
—Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) - 6 point shift.
—Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.
—Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP - 10 point shift.
—Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP - 23 point shift.
—Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM - 17 point shift.
—Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP - 6 point shift.
—Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP - 16 point shift.
—Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM - 24 point shift.
—Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP - 17 point shift.
—Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP - 27 point shift.
—Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP - 14 point shift.
—Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM - 27 point shift.
—Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP - 11 point shift.
Article is dated October 4th.
How can this be Caddell keeps telling us that Obama has Ohio locked up!
This is amazing news, and NOT good for Obama. Ohio is his firewall, boosted by strong unions and paradoxically a Republican governor that turned the state around.
This is three weeks old.
Gosh! You just busted the euphoria.
So what if its 3 weeks old? This is the first time I’ve seen it and probably others as well.
Confirming the great research already done here on Free Republic.
I must admit, as a younger conservative, I’m constantly outnumbered by my liberal counterparts, so I do get dejected/worried about the election. I know a lot of Freepers are supremely confident, but it’s different when your age demographic is overwhelmingly liberal, and trying to blast you for being a conservative.
However, I love news like this. It makes me less nervous about Nov 6.
I added the date to the space which says “Date” and also added the date to the title. This same article was found via search here http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/search?m=all;o=time;q=quick;s=Ohio%20shocker%3A%20GOP%20closes%20early%20voting%20gap%2C
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This Ohio info is from yesterday (Oct 23), from Ohio number watchers Adrian Gray and Jose. Jose updates the Ohio absentee ballot request spreadsheet which FReepers LS and Ravi have been analyzing for weeks. Adrian Gray was part of two winning Bush campaigns. Both watch the absentee and early voting numbers in several states.
The trending is still going our way in Ohio...
Adrian Gray says on twitter:
OHIO: Obama visited Ohio University in Athens on Oct 17. Since then Democrat share of overall ballots has dropped under 30% in the county.
OHIO: Obama won Franklin Cnty 59-39% in 2008. Oct 9, Obama visited Ohio State, told crowd “vote today”. Since then, more GOP have voted.
Ohio: Obama state plan is a “college tour.” But it is not netting him a lot of votes. I sent some examples earlier. Will be watching.
Jose says on twitter:
In 2010, deep blue Franklin county accounted for 15.2% of Ohio absentee ballot requests, so far in 2012 that # is 12.9%
In 2010, deep blue Cuyahoga county accounted for 20.6% of Ohio absentee ballot requests, so far in 2012 that # is 16.4%
Yeah, but the real story isn’t JUST that these counties are seeing big dropoffs, but that the REPUBLICAN share of the dropoff is significantly less than the Dem dropoff and therefore this is a dual whammy: the Ds have fewer people overall turning out and the Rs have more proportionately than 08.
Franklin, which did have Rs up 4500, now shows Rs up 6200 in absentees. This county went for Obama in 08.
Today's numbers show Rs in Hamilton, which Obama won, have opened up a 10,000 vote LEAD in absentee voting, for a 13-point swing.
In Cuyahoga, Rs have a net gain of 6% over 08.
But I just got word about my county, Montgomery (Dayton) which Obama won: Early voting overall is down by 80% (!!!). Now, even assuming that all early votes go to Dems, that's devastating. But Rs have increased their % of early votes as well over 08.
Caddell said it MAY be lost due to early voting before Romney’s surge, but by no means did he say that’s a guarantee. He’s recommending Romney pour money into other swing states as a backup plan in case Ohio is lost.
I have one concern. Cuyahoga’s turnout overall is actually up 25,000 votes already. Yes, the margin has tightened by 6, but I’m starting to fear that they can make it up in volume.
With that said I am liking what I am seeing out of the swing counties of Wood, Franklin, and Columbiana, and to a lesser degree, Lake.