I am not so sure you and I dont have as much info as Morris.
Dick has people from both parties that talk with him. He absolutley has info we are not privvy to. He is sometimes very wrong and he is not always the best at reading tea leaves but he has a pretty good idea of this election because most people do not realize that he has his own private polling firm and he has direct polling results to compare against the crap that is spiced up for public consumption.
LLS