Actually, forget the Ohio polls, and follow the national polls, because the national polls are the Ohio polls.
What has been ignored in all the discussion about polling is that, historically, the GOP candidate's share of the vote in Ohio correlates very closely with his share of the national vote.
In 2008, McCain earned 46.5% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 47.3%. In 2004, George W. Bush earned 50.7% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 51%. In 2000, George W. Bush earned about 48% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 52%.
You can go back even further, but the results are the same - GOP candidates tend to equal or overperform their national popular vote percentage. I feel confident in predicting that if Romney is leading in the national polls on Election Day, he will carry Ohio.
That is good information.
I think what we are waiting to see is how undecideds break at the very end. We are banking on them moving to Romney, but it doesn't seem like there is enough evidence yet to say if that is true. Right now the race in Ohio and nationally seems to be tied. Maybe this cycle is slightly different due to the massive amounts of time and money the Democrats have poured in to Ohio. Perhaps Obama is up a couple of points there, but if there is even a slight wave toward Romney that should be enough for him to carry Ohio.