Posted on 10/24/2012 4:56:59 PM PDT by barmag25
We have to invite Clint to the FR inaugural party.......
"And that is why the polls are now rubbish: with response rates that low, the conclusions are unstable and liable to be biased (though you can't tell how) due to some systematic cause for non-response. You can't publish a paper based on a survey in any reputable journal in the social or behavioral sciences with a response rate of under 30%."
Unless, of course, you've just dialed every voter in Michigan and completed the population sample. Close!
Indeed, and you bring him one of your chairs!
I truly want to be enthusiastic about this election and hope and pray that Mitt wins, but I sure don’t want to get over confident. Remember, we are dealing with crooks, liars and voter fraud.
I don’t think MI will go Romney. I sure want to be proven wrong on this.
I was just wondering yesterday about how many of those O signs I saw east of Saginaw on 46 in front of nice brick homes were there just for protection or show. Mr. P is less optimistic than I am. I think there are a lot of Romney Democrats that of course aren’t going to admit that.
Sorry, but all due respect to your Michigan nostalgia, 1964 was not the biggest election blowout in history. 1972 was.
“This poll is a tease - it always looks intriguing and then at the end the D pulls away to win comfortably”
The Romney Packs ran ads last night right before the first pitch of he baseball game all over MI. This was not cheep. Don’t forget in 2010 Michigan elected more repubs they at any time in its history. Supermajority in senate,,house and governor. if the weather cooperates and it rains in metro Detroit this could be a big night in the wolverine state.
And answered. Even if all were valid we don’t know how many were answered and how many actual live adults accepted or declined to be polled.
Detroit skews everything - its a dying city but still makes the difference in presidential elections.
This poll is a tease - it always looks intriguing and then at the end the D pulls away to win comfortably.
I’m sure what the optimism is about MI... it hasn’t gone R since 1988.
**
Right. hard for me to get too excited. People of Detroit LOVE living amongst urban blight, rats, total desintigration of their town and society ...it’s what Democrats DO. Will forever remain a mystery to me WHY people could EVER vote Democrat after seeing what they’ve done to Detroit.
Exactly...16 point spread last election.
If the autobail out was helping O, it would be even worse for Romney than ‘08.
I also agree that there is no way Ohio is tied if it’s that close in MI.
Things have changed considerably in Michigan over the last 6 or 8 years. Its also important to note that the 04 race wasn’t exactly a blowout for Kerry in Michigan (something like 4 or 5 percent). 08 was different because it was the “historic” election of a black man.
Now our voter ID laws are firmly in place. We have one of the best secretaries of state in the nation and she is backed up by a good attorney general. Both of them were targets of fraud and have zero tolerance for it.
As someone else pointed out upthread, unions in Michigan are in disarray now as well. There are divisions between public and private sector unions with divisions within both. The union conservatives are openly supporting Romney and right to work laws and factions within the SEIU are now suing each other.
Sent Foster McLullen & White an email asking for breakdowns, hinting they’d get more attention if we had numbers.
Will update if I hear ...
Thank you for all the pings.
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