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Rasmussen: NV O 50% / R 48% (Inds: R 59% / O 37%!!!)
Rasmussen ^ | Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Posted on 10/24/2012 5:07:33 PM PDT by sf4dubya

President Obama still receives 50% of the vote in Nevada’s tight presidential race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with 50% support to Mitt Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided.

...

Among voters in Nevada not affiliated with either major political party, Romney leads Obama 59% to 37%.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: election2012; elections; mormons; nevada; poll2012; polls2012; romney; unions; unionsvsmormons

1 posted on 10/24/2012 5:07:35 PM PDT by sf4dubya
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To: sf4dubya

Looks like even Rasmussen is grossly oversampling Democrats/undersampling Republicans and independents. I wonder what his response rate is now. Compared to the other pollsters that report shrinking rates, now well below 10%.


2 posted on 10/24/2012 5:15:17 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Sooth2222

Rasmussen must have called a few graveyards in addition to the houses. We all know how the dead vote.


3 posted on 10/24/2012 5:16:58 PM PDT by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
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To: Cato in PA

We should not pick and choose what Ras poll we like. Scary times


4 posted on 10/24/2012 5:21:41 PM PDT by GoCards (I am a Hobbit)
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To: GoCards

I think people are missing the news... 22 pt lead for Romney among Independents in Nevada is huge.

The independents are nowhere near participating in early voting here as much as the GOP/Dems.


5 posted on 10/24/2012 5:25:51 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: Sooth2222

Nevada has a huge Mormon population that is being completely ignored .
Reid wins because he wins that voter block !
Just watch


6 posted on 10/24/2012 5:27:18 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: sf4dubya

Our response to unfavorable polls is getting a little too knee-jerk dismissive. This one should be taken a little more seriously.

This tells me it’s very very close in Nevada. With the unions, Obama probably has a slight advantage. More work needs to be done in Nevada.


7 posted on 10/24/2012 5:28:06 PM PDT by SarahPalin2012
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To: SarahPalin2012

I think the reaction was due to the 22 point lead among indies. How can Romney lose IF the lead is really that big?


8 posted on 10/24/2012 5:31:26 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: SarahPalin2012

Amen! Although I’m continually perplexed at EVERY poll showing Romney up huge with Independents, who we’ve been told always decide elections, and still barely breaking even. Don’t get it.


9 posted on 10/24/2012 5:31:27 PM PDT by paul544
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To: SarahPalin2012

Office of Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller
2012 General Election
Week 1 Early Voting Turnout
Updated: 11:45 am 10/24/2012

Dem 47.30%
Rep 35.92%
Other 16.78%

Absent/Mail-In Ballots

Dem 42.29%
Rep 42.16%
Other 15.55%

http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491


10 posted on 10/24/2012 5:33:54 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: GoCards

I agree. One of the things I would like to better understand though is what demographics are going for Romney and which states those favor him. Romney seems to be over-performing with whites. How about with Latinos? How do those populations compare in NV vs CO. Why is Romney ahead (hopefully) in CO but not in NV?


11 posted on 10/24/2012 5:35:48 PM PDT by Right of Wrong
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To: sf4dubya

These numbers assume that all the democrats returning absentee ballots are actually voting for Obama. Do we know that is the case?


12 posted on 10/24/2012 5:44:01 PM PDT by Fai Mao (Genius at Large)
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To: Fai Mao

Those numbers I posted was for turnout so people could see how much in Clark and Washoe is still remaining to vote. If you go by Rasmussen, anywhere between 5-10% Dems could vote for Romney. We won’t know until Election Day, obviously.

This whole thing in Nevada is to get all the independents and Republicans out to vote to even dent what is going to happen in Clark county (Las Vegas) with the SEIU bussing their members to the polls.


13 posted on 10/24/2012 5:52:52 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: Sooth2222

Totally impossible for Obama to win Nevada with that Indy number.


14 posted on 10/24/2012 5:55:54 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

Totally impossible for Obama to win Nevada with that Indy number.


You would be correct if the rule of law was observed in Nevada elections. Don’t discount voter fraud FRiend. It’s real in large cities and it impacts our nation in a huge way. Just examine the Al Franken margin of victory and what has been discovered since that election. Erase that fraud and we don’t have Obamacare?


15 posted on 10/24/2012 6:17:59 PM PDT by volunbeer (We must embrace austerity or austerity will embrace us)
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To: sf4dubya

bttt


16 posted on 10/24/2012 6:20:36 PM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: paul544
Amen! Although I’m continually perplexed at EVERY poll showing Romney up huge with Independents, who we’ve been told always decide elections, and still barely breaking even. Don’t get it.

The busier the person, the less likely to respond to a poll; Without a representative sample the poll will not reflect the likely vote. The push polls would not care because they are designed for propaganda. For the campaign polls the professional pollsters and their customers care very much that the result be close to the likely outcome.

17 posted on 10/24/2012 6:22:32 PM PDT by af_vet_1981 (The bus came by and I got on, That's when it all began,)
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To: Red Steel

Top number is concerning, especially since the Kenyan is at 50%.

Internals look great though.


18 posted on 10/24/2012 6:33:39 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Right of Wrong

Republican SOS elected in 2010 in CO and a Dem SOS in NV.
7% higher Latino population in NV, and about 4% higher black population in NV as compared to CO.


19 posted on 10/24/2012 6:33:55 PM PDT by ebersole
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To: Right of Wrong
I will take a try with your questions. In Colorado, according to the 2010 Census, Hispanics make up 20.7% of the population. In Nevada, they make up 26.5%. So, Nevada already has a higher percentage of Hispanics (most of whom are voting for Obama and Democrats) than Colorado. Add to this the occupational factor of heavy participation in the Culinary Union because of the hotel/casino industries in Nevada, it is not a surprise to me that most Hispanics vote Democrat. The union has a strong lock on these employees and is part of the Democrat machine. I can't speak to the demographics in Colorado other than what I mentioned regarding population totals.
20 posted on 10/24/2012 6:42:41 PM PDT by Nevadan
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To: Right of Wrong
Why is Romney ahead (hopefully) in CO but not in NV?

My guess.

1. Latino Population, State of Nevada

2.

21 posted on 10/24/2012 7:28:40 PM PDT by GVnana
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NV: 8.6% black; 27% hispanic

CO: 4.3% black; 20.9% hispanic

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

22 posted on 10/24/2012 7:28:54 PM PDT by Ken H
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To: Right of Wrong
Why is Romney ahead (hopefully) in CO but not in NV?

My guess.

1. Latino Population, State of Nevada

2.

23 posted on 10/24/2012 7:29:29 PM PDT by GVnana
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To: sf4dubya

Rasmussen is slitting his own throat to satisfy leftists who dumped millions into his bank account.


24 posted on 10/24/2012 7:31:42 PM PDT by sergeantdave (The FBI has declared war on the Marine Corps)
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To: Ken H

Yeah. Nevada is likely gone as a GOP state. Too many illegals.

We need to win this back in Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.


25 posted on 10/24/2012 7:32:25 PM PDT by SteveAustin
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To: sf4dubya

NV went for Obama over McCain 55-43 in 2008.


26 posted on 10/24/2012 7:33:07 PM PDT by Ken H
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If you agree, please click the "Like"

27 posted on 10/24/2012 7:35:58 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: SteveAustin
re: Yeah. Nevada is likely gone as a GOP state. Too many illegals.

I am afraid so. Plus we have a Democrat secretary of state who isn’t interested in ensuring the integrity of our elections, plus no mechanism in place whatsoever that would prevent illegal aliens from voting. It is an honor system with no repercussions for violations. Sure there is a threat, but that is all there is.

28 posted on 10/24/2012 7:44:17 PM PDT by Nevadan
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To: SarahPalin2012; sf4dubya
This one should be taken a little more seriously.

Obama won Nevada by 13 percentage points in 2008 and now only leads by 2, big big swing away from the anointed one.

29 posted on 10/24/2012 7:53:23 PM PDT by Doofer (Still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.)
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To: Doofer

Yes, that is all true. But we have to figure in the vast amount of fraud that will be perpetrated by the Democrats and their machine. In 2010 Sharon Angle was ahead in the polls against Harry Reid. I don’t think he missed a moment of sleep worrying about the election. After his people did their thing, he “won”.


30 posted on 10/24/2012 8:07:21 PM PDT by Nevadan
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Why do the Democrats always seem to do so much better at early voting? Do they make a point to drag people to the polls...whether one agrees with early voting, the rules are the rules, and the GOP should play be them and bus people to the polls too.

Is there some reason I’m missing?


31 posted on 10/24/2012 8:49:38 PM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: sf4dubya
Among voters in Nevada not affiliated with either major political party, Romney leads Obama 59% to 37%.

This is the key stat.

This is why they are forced to oversample Democrats.

32 posted on 10/24/2012 9:45:35 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: ebersole
"7% higher Latino population in NV, and about 4% higher black population in NV as compared to CO."

BUT no one can quantify Nevada's 7% Mormon pop. Yet.

33 posted on 10/24/2012 11:48:33 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: Nevadan
"After his people did their thing, he “won”."

Buses full of illegals from the casino kitchens and the chambermaids.

Although, it's worth noting registration is closed in Nevada.

34 posted on 10/24/2012 11:54:38 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: Sooth2222

I’ve listened to a couple of programs now about Nevada, and they all say that Romney’s problem in Nevada is the Hispanic vote.

He somehow needs to shake loose some more Hispanic voters or increase the ground game on the supporters that he does have.

Nevada is critical to any plan he has to win without winning Ohio.


35 posted on 10/25/2012 5:26:30 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

Geez tough enough that his hoard from this south has about ruined our country. Now they get to finish us off.


36 posted on 10/25/2012 5:34:21 AM PDT by catfish1957 (My dream for hope and change is to see the punk POTUS in prison for treason)
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To: All

any Ohio news

PMSNBC is saying (all know) Ohio is inevitable to Obama via 2 to 1 early votes for the commander in fraud.


37 posted on 10/25/2012 5:40:14 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: catfish1957; P-Marlowe; wagglebee

The hoard from the south is one issue, and those Hispanics who are lifelong US citizens for generations is another issue.

Romney is losing the 2nd group, and it really baffles me. Demographically speaking, Hispanic Americans should be more Catholic and evangelical, and therefore, more concerned about government encroachment on religious liberty, particularly on issues of life. Romney has made ObamaCare an element of his campaign, but he’s not focused on the Catholic/evangelical alarm that the government is telling them how to handle their religious beliefs.

This would involve dealing with “abortion and contraception” and Romney considers that to be a 3rd rail.

He needs a good ad that simply addresses government telling churches what to believe. That might shake loose a few more Hispanic voters. JMHO, and I might well be wrong, but it’s a gut feel.

I was encouraged the other day that Romney had counseled a woman not to receive an abortion when her doctor was telling her otherwise. That was one of the cases that early reports said Gloria Allred might be taking up to throw in Romney’s face. Turns out it wasn’t the one, but it did give some hope that Romney might be more concerned with life than other information had indicated. It was the first time I’d heard this story.


38 posted on 10/25/2012 6:02:44 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins; P-Marlowe
This would involve dealing with “abortion and contraception” and Romney considers that to be a 3rd rail.

That's because his claims to conservatism are motivated by necessity rather than genuine values.

39 posted on 10/25/2012 6:14:14 AM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: wagglebee

I tend to agree with you, but, like I said, he apparently did disagree pretty strongly with medical folks who were telling a woman in his parish — he was bishop — to receive an abortion due to some complication.

I don’t know when this was, his age, the result, etc. I just know that the woman was one candidate for Gloria Allred to use to bash him. So, apparently, the woman held it against him. That makes me wonder if she’s upset that he told her not to get the abortion or upset that she followed his advice. I don’t really know.


40 posted on 10/25/2012 6:18:45 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: StAnDeliver

re: Although, it’s worth noting registration is closed in Nevada.

True, but they can still vote for the dead. And without a doubt, most of those illegals from the casino kitchens and chambermaids were registered before the deadline.


41 posted on 10/25/2012 6:55:13 AM PDT by Nevadan
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To: sf4dubya

Take that PPP!

Dueling polls out of Nevada. The key here is that Nevada is now mustwin for Obama but not for Romney, now that Colorado is looking good.


42 posted on 10/25/2012 8:41:56 AM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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