Posted on 10/25/2012 5:30:38 AM PDT by Perdogg
For prior day’s post on Washoe early voting see: Washoe County Early Vote Shocker and Back to Back Washoe County Wins for Team Nevada.
In 2008 President Obama built insurmountable leads in early voting such that even if John McCain had competed heavily in Nevada, he would have had no chance to overcome the Obama early voting ground game. 2012 continues to be a very different story. After being shut out in 2008, Republicans have now won 3 of the 5 early voting days in Washoe County. Today’s Washoe report shows Republicans casting 3541 ballots versus Democrats 3310 ballots. This continues the trend of Republicans eating into Democrats overall lead which now stands at 983 more ballots cast. At this juncture in 2008 Democrats had an early voting advantage of 6353 ballots cast, a -5370 ballot difference. Note that the entire remaining advantage is from the day 1 lead of 985 ballots and since then Republicans have averaged 0.5 more ballots cast than Democrats per day. Here is the current trend of Republicans and Democrats % of the overall early vote:
(Excerpt) Read more at battlegroundwatch.com ...
ping
But doesn’t Vegas (Clark County iirc) really determine who wins and loses the state?
What else is there to say...the majority of people are just sick of the current president.
Adrian Gray on Twitter says EV trends in NV not looking good. He’s a good guy, says IA looking good. What ar TOTAL NV trends vs 08?
Yes, but RR was in Henderson, NV this week.
LETS ROLL NEVADA!
LETS ROLL NEVADA!
From battleground watch:
Right now my model is overstating Democrat turnout. The average daily turnout for Democrats after Day 1 is only 66.2% of the Day 1 result and not the 86.6% expected based on 2008 results. The overall opportunity for Republicans to make gains is greater going forward based on what appears to be a definite enthusiasm drop-off in early voting by Democrats when you look at both Clark and Washoe County. The model did however practically nail the Republican % of the Democrat vote predicting 107% when in actuality it was 108%. This was based on the assumption of a 3.85% daily growth rate from 2008. The 2012 daily growth rate for Republicans as a % of the Democrat vote is 7.1%. I’m going to wait one more day before tweaking the model even with the overstated Democrat turnout because adjusting the rate of change for Republican growth can have a disproportionate impact on the model. Since today’s results were largely in-line with the model’s growth rate another day’s data would be meaningful in increasing the accuracy of new assumptions. As it stands the model expects Republicans to have a nearly 9000 early vote advantage heading into election day. In 2008 Democrats cast 11,987 more ballots in early voting than did Republicans. This would be a 21,000 ballot swing in a county President Obama won overall by 22,791 votes.
I really don’t think we will need Nevada which I think we win anyways. Ohio is going R&R as is Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, NH, NC, Va, Florida, Va, Indiana. This thing will be over and called by Fox by 11pm.
Without Washoe, Romney has no chance to carry NV - the 21,000 ballot swing in Washoe shows he can get enough votes to offset Clark. And since Democratic voter turnout is way off from 2008, I think it looks very good. That’s why all the polls we’ve seen this year are way off!
Good news bump
new AP poll, D+4 has Romney up 47-45
Per Ace of Spades HQ
R+0.70% - Current RCP Average
O+0.75% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.90% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.06% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.10% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.77% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
The Monday debate is not moving the numbers, Romney’s momentum continues.
Obama is getting 45% and we have a full week left in this election campaign and I don’t see him getting real momentum.
You would think the debates mattered - not for O they haven’t made a difference.
This kind of information should not be released until the polls close on election day. It only puts the RATs on notice about how many votes they need to manufacture or steal.
North Nevada is Conservative and Republican, Its south Nevada that is Union/Democrat controlled and will slavishly vote for Obama and the Democrat Machine. I fear—Nevada will go to Obama in the election—unless something happens with Obama.
Personally, I think if a network starts stalling in calling NH, you can take from that a Romney victory. Ditto VA. In 200 , the networks called ANY Gore state within minutes, even with a tiny % lead. They delayed calling states like GA and NC that had big Bush margins for up to one hour!
In 2008, Obama beat McCain in Washoe by approximately 99,000 to 76,000. But Bush led Kerry there in 2004, 81,000 to 74,000 (all in rough numbers).
I, too, am curious as to why Obama still seems to be leading in Nevada, judging by the last Ras poll.
Can any of you guys in the state or otherwise familiar with the situation shed some insight on this for us?
No washoe is the bellwether.
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