Any thoughts?
Nate Silver on the right. Woot.
I think this is possible if everything breaks right. I love it that Oregon and Minnesota and Michigan go red. No one is expecting that. Maine could even tip. The Left will be in complete meltdown.
I have tabulated the data here in an Excel spreadsheet, did some other things to it, and plan to use it Election night to check results against this projection. Could be interesting.
Here in Ohio where I am, I sense the winds are blowing a tide that is favorable to Romney. If this is correct, it could be over quickly...News at 11...
If the rest of this map is close to what actually happens, Ohio won’t matter and there will be no ‘hanging chads’. to challenge.
DISCLAIMER: I am not saying that this prognostication is correct, but I see some encouragement in all this. Note to all...achieving these kinds of numbers requires that we ALL get out there and vote, and that we encourage as many right minded folks that we know to do the same.
State | Clinton 1996 | Dole 1996 | Gore 2000 | Bush 2000 | Kerry 2004 | Bush 2004 | Obama 2008 | McCain 2008 | State | Projected Obama | Projected Romney | Projected pop Obama | Projected pop Romney |
Alabama | 43.00 | 50.00 | 42.00 | 56.00 | 37.00 | 63.00 | 39.00 | 60.00 | Alabama | 35.60 | 65.22 | 776249 | 1422106 |
Alaska | 33.00 | 51.00 | 28.00 | 59.00 | 35.50 | 61.10 | 37.70 | 60.20 | Alaska | 28.90 | 65.80 | 83295 | 189648 |
Arizona | 46.00 | 44.00 | 45.00 | 51.00 | 44.40 | 54.90 | 45.00 | 53.80 | Arizona | 40.45 | 58.90 | 883941 | 1287123 |
Arkansas | 54.00 | 37.00 | 46.00 | 51.00 | 44.50 | 54.40 | 38.80 | 58.80 | Arkansas | 41.18 | 58.27 | 454321 | 642868 |
California | 51.00 | 38.00 | 53.00 | 42.00 | 54.30 | 44.40 | 60.90 | 37.30 | California | 57.15 | 42.40 | 7008802 | 5199881 |
Colorado | 44.00 | 46.00 | 42.00 | 51.00 | 47.00 | 51.70 | 53.50 | 44.90 | Colorado | 44.98 | 54.37 | 1056479 | 1277029 |
Connecticut | 52.00 | 35.00 | 56.00 | 38.00 | 54.30 | 43.90 | 60.50 | 38.30 | Connecticut | 51.05 | 46.77 | 857386 | 785503 |
Delaware | 52.00 | 37.00 | 55.00 | 42.00 | 53.30 | 45.80 | 61.90 | 37.00 | Delaware | 53.90 | 45.42 | 230766 | 194460 |
District of Columbia | 85.00 | 9.00 | 85.00 | 9.00 | 89.20 | 9.30 | 92.90 | 6.50 | District of Columbia | 92.38 | 6.42 | 218465 | 15182 |
Florida | 48.00 | 42.00 | 49.00 | 49.00 | 47.10 | 52.10 | 50.90 | 48.40 | Florida | 46.10 | 53.85 | 3912739 | 4570521 |
Georgia | 46.00 | 47.00 | 43.00 | 55.00 | 41.40 | 58.00 | 47.00 | 52.20 | Georgia | 39.70 | 61.02 | 1622253 | 2493449 |
Hawaii | 57.00 | 32.00 | 56.00 | 37.00 | 54.00 | 45.30 | 71.80 | 26.60 | Hawaii | 55.05 | 43.20 | 257352 | 201955 |
Idaho | 34.00 | 52.00 | 28.00 | 67.00 | 30.30 | 68.40 | 36.10 | 61.50 | Idaho | 27.45 | 70.20 | 183371 | 468949 |
Illinois | 54.00 | 37.00 | 55.00 | 43.00 | 54.80 | 44.50 | 61.80 | 36.90 | Illinois | 53.75 | 46.32 | 2991410 | 2577900 |
Indiana | 42.00 | 47.00 | 41.00 | 57.00 | 39.30 | 59.90 | 49.90 | 49.00 | Indiana | 38.40 | 61.20 | 1092013 | 1740395 |
Iowa | 50.00 | 40.00 | 49.00 | 48.00 | 49.30 | 49.90 | 54.00 | 44.70 | Iowa | 45.93 | 53.62 | 721347 | 842121 |
Kansas | 36.00 | 54.00 | 37.00 | 58.00 | 36.60 | 62.00 | 41.40 | 56.80 | Kansas | 33.10 | 65.67 | 412027 | 817458 |
Kentucky | 46.00 | 45.00 | 41.00 | 57.00 | 39.70 | 59.50 | 41.10 | 57.50 | Kentucky | 37.30 | 62.72 | 700965 | 1178674 |
Louisiana | 52.00 | 40.00 | 45.00 | 53.00 | 42.20 | 56.70 | 39.90 | 58.60 | Louisiana | 40.13 | 60.05 | 812638 | 1216020 |
Maine | 52.00 | 31.00 | 49.00 | 44.00 | 53.60 | 44.60 | 57.60 | 40.50 | Maine | 49.40 | 49.20 | 372260 | 370753 |
Maryland | 54.00 | 38.00 | 56.00 | 40.00 | 56.00 | 43.00 | 61.90 | 36.80 | Maryland | 54.33 | 45.42 | 1436751 | 1201127 |
Massachusetts | 61.00 | 28.00 | 60.00 | 33.00 | 62.00 | 36.90 | 62.00 | 36.20 | Massachusetts | 56.60 | 41.50 | 1780147 | 1305231 |
Michigan | 52.00 | 38.00 | 51.00 | 46.00 | 51.20 | 47.80 | 57.40 | 40.90 | Michigan | 48.25 | 51.15 | 2488585 | 2638158 |
Minnesota | 51.00 | 35.00 | 48.00 | 46.00 | 51.50 | 48.00 | 54.20 | 44.00 | Minnesota | 46.53 | 51.22 | 1391786 | 1532072 |
Mississippi | 44.00 | 49.00 | 41.00 | 58.00 | 40.10 | 59.10 | 42.80 | 56.40 | Mississippi | 37.33 | 63.60 | 473545 | 806789 |
Missouri | 47.00 | 41.00 | 47.00 | 50.00 | 46.10 | 53.30 | 49.30 | 49.40 | Missouri | 42.70 | 56.40 | 1292914 | 1707737 |
Montana | 41.00 | 44.00 | 33.00 | 58.00 | 38.60 | 59.10 | 47.20 | 49.70 | Montana | 35.30 | 60.67 | 174777 | 300388 |
Nebraska | 35.00 | 54.00 | 33.00 | 62.00 | 32.70 | 66.00 | 41.50 | 57.00 | Nebraska | 30.90 | 67.72 | 249953 | 547794 |
Nevada | 44.00 | 43.00 | 46.00 | 50.00 | 48.10 | 50.70 | 55.10 | 42.70 | Nevada | 46.65 | 52.57 | 462332 | 521003 |
New Hampshire | 49.00 | 39.00 | 47.00 | 48.00 | 50.40 | 49.00 | 54.30 | 44.80 | New Hampshire | 45.53 | 53.17 | 335376 | 391653 |
New Jersey | 54.00 | 36.00 | 56.00 | 40.00 | 53.00 | 46.20 | 56.80 | 42.10 | New Jersey | 50.43 | 49.05 | 1922429 | 1869822 |
New Mexico | 49.00 | 42.00 | 48.00 | 48.00 | 49.00 | 49.80 | 56.70 | 42.00 | New Mexico | 46.03 | 53.42 | 390653 | 453371 |
New York | 59.00 | 31.00 | 60.00 | 35.00 | 58.40 | 40.10 | 62.20 | 36.70 | New York | 55.25 | 43.67 | 4025920 | 3182116 |
North Carolina | 44.00 | 49.00 | 43.00 | 56.00 | 43.60 | 56.10 | 49.90 | 49.50 | North Carolina | 40.48 | 60.62 | 1799232 | 2694403 |
North Dakota | 40.00 | 47.00 | 33.00 | 61.00 | 35.50 | 62.90 | 44.70 | 53.30 | North Dakota | 33.65 | 64.02 | 109402 | 208140 |
Ohio | 47.00 | 40.00 | 46.00 | 50.00 | 48.70 | 50.80 | 51.20 | 47.20 | Ohio | 45.58 | 53.97 | 2493712 | 2952735 |
Oklahoma | 40.00 | 48.00 | 38.00 | 60.00 | 34.40 | 65.60 | 34.40 | 65.60 | Oklahoma | 32.05 | 67.77 | 492013 | 1040365 |
Oregon | 47.00 | 39.00 | 47.00 | 47.00 | 51.60 | 47.40 | 57.10 | 40.80 | Oregon | 46.03 | 51.52 | 811137 | 907881 |
Pennsylvania | 49.00 | 40.00 | 51.00 | 46.00 | 51.00 | 48.50 | 54.70 | 44.30 | Pennsylvania | 46.78 | 52.67 | 2838495 | 3195885 |
Rhode Island | 60.00 | 27.00 | 61.00 | 32.00 | 59.40 | 38.70 | 63.10 | 35.30 | Rhode Island | 56.23 | 41.22 | 258912 | 189798 |
South Carolina | 44.00 | 50.00 | 41.00 | 57.00 | 41.00 | 58.10 | 44.90 | 53.80 | South Carolina | 38.08 | 62.70 | 747252 | 1230375 |
South Dakota | 43.00 | 46.00 | 38.00 | 60.00 | 38.40 | 59.90 | 44.70 | 53.20 | South Dakota | 36.38 | 62.75 | 142828 | 246357 |
Tennessee | 48.00 | 46.00 | 47.00 | 51.00 | 42.60 | 56.90 | 41.80 | 56.90 | Tennessee | 40.20 | 60.67 | 1076876 | 1625225 |
Texas | 44.00 | 49.00 | 38.00 | 59.00 | 38.20 | 61.10 | 43.80 | 55.50 | Texas | 36.35 | 64.12 | 3049168 | 5378615 |
Utah | 33.00 | 54.00 | 26.00 | 67.00 | 26.40 | 72.70 | 34.20 | 62.90 | Utah | 25.25 | 72.12 | 227283 | 649175 |
Vermont | 53.00 | 31.00 | 51.00 | 41.00 | 58.90 | 38.80 | 67.80 | 30.60 | Vermont | 53.03 | 43.32 | 177009 | 144598 |
Virginia | 45.00 | 47.00 | 44.00 | 52.00 | 45.60 | 53.80 | 52.70 | 46.40 | Virginia | 42.18 | 57.77 | 1631794 | 2234916 |
Washington | 50.00 | 37.00 | 50.00 | 45.00 | 52.80 | 45.60 | 57.50 | 40.50 | Washington | 50.93 | 48.76 | 1414351 | 1354089 |
West Virginia | 51.00 | 37.00 | 46.00 | 52.00 | 43.20 | 56.10 | 42.60 | 55.70 | West Virginia | 41.05 | 58.17 | 299871 | 424933 |
Wisconsin | 49.00 | 39.00 | 48.00 | 48.00 | 49.70 | 49.40 | 56.30 | 42.40 | Wisconsin | 46.10 | 52.67 | 1417615 | 1619649 |
Wyoming | 37.00 | 50.00 | 28.00 | 68.00 | 29.10 | 69.00 | 32.70 | 65.20 | Wyoming | 27.05 | 71.02 | 68488 | 179817 |
Total | 49.00 | 41.00 | 48.00 | 48.00 | 48.30 | 50.70 | 53.00 | 46.00 | Total | 45.92 | 53.63 | 60128685 | 70226212 |