Kudos to ConservativeInPA for the chart
Posted on 10/26/2012 6:37:03 AM PDT by The Hound Passer
In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground that put George W. Bush over the top. This year, it might come down to Wisconsin.
That's a state President Obama won by 14 points four years ago. But Wisconsin has gone through an amazing two years of nonstop campaigning since Gov. Scott Walker was elected in 2010. After he took on the teachers unions, there were efforts to recall several Republican state senators and then Walker himself.
The governor not only survived, but he won more votes in his recall election this year than he won on Election Day in 2010. But it's not what happened in Wisconsin that could make the state decisive in Election 2012; it's what's happening all around the country.
All signs point to a close race with just over a week to go. In fact, current polling suggests it might be close enough to produce a split decision, with Mitt Romney winning the popular vote and the president keeping his job with a victory in the Electoral College.
Most national polls show Romney with a very slight lead of around 2 percentage points.
Still, it's Obama who has the edge in the Electoral College. Rasmussen Reports currently projects that the president should win states with 237 Electoral College votes. Romney has enough states to win 235. Those projections assume Florida and North Carolina end up in the GOP column -- an assumption the Obama campaign contests.
That leaves seven toss-up states -- Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada.
To move into the White House, Romney absolutely needs to win Virginia's 13 electoral votes. If he can accomplish that goal, he just needs to win Ohio and one other swing state to reach the magic number of 270 for victory.
Romney has never led in Ohio according to scores of public polls. The numbers in the Buckeye State so far suggest that the race is either tied or leaning slightly in Obama's favor.
If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes.
The simplest path without Ohio would be for Romney to win Wisconsin, Colorado and one other swing state. It's plausible, but an uphill struggle. The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in Wisconsin shows the president up by 2 points.
Despite the polls, some conservative activists in Wisconsin think it's possible to pull off an upset. They point out that, unlike Ohio, the state was not flooded with anti-Romney ads over the summer (in Wisconsin, they were still fighting about the governor's election recall at the time). That means more voters may be open to supporting the GOP candidate.
Additionally, in Ohio, almost all analysts believe the Democrats have a better ground game to get voters to the polls. That's not the case in Wisconsin. The Republican ground game got a good and very successful dry run during the recall election in June. And, of course, the man on the ticket with Romney is from Wisconsin. If Paul Ryan is able to pull in just a few extra votes, it could make a lot of difference.
On election night, the first places to watch will be Virginia and Florida. If Romney wins there, watch Ohio. If the president wins Ohio, Wisconsin is likely to be the decisive battleground state of Election 2012.
There’s no reason to think it will be close except the media needs it close to save the faltering Obama and to give them something to write about in the election’s home stretch. No one predicted the 1980 landslide - its something no one foresaw.
Except this is Rasmussen not the media. If we are going to trust his national #s and other state polls that are to Romney’s advantage then I think we have to take heed about what he is saying about OH too. And no poll has yet to show Romney with the same lead in OH as in other swing states like FL, VA, CO.
I think Romney pulls it out but talk of “landslide” is premature. It’s a divided nation and the left w/ it’s SEIU and other labor pals know how to “remediate” a slim election deficit with their patented Franken Method.
I acknowledge that Rasmussen is not nearly as certain about these as I am, or as optimistic as I am. For the sake of analysis let us assume that I am correct. That means that Obama is now strictly on defense, he must win every one of the following states or lose the election: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. This turns the analysis on its head from the way the media has been presenting the situation to the public. Now Obama is on the defensive and must hold back the flood everywhere. Under this scenario, Romney must win one and Obama must sweep the board. I like Romney's odds better.
All of the intangibles that Rasmussen cannot measure such as intensity, ground game and momentum favor Romney and disfavor Obama. Romney is within striking distance of any one of these states except perhaps Michigan. Small, local polls cited by Dick Morris have Romney ahead in Pennsylvania. We all know the arguments in Romney's favor in Ohio. The history of Wisconsin and the proven effective ground game the Republicans have in place there suggests that Wisconsin is a very likely pick up for Romney despite the two point shortfall under Rasmussen. The reach in Nevada is a bit further but this is an intense year and Obama's hold on the unions in Las Vegas and the Hispanics might not be enough.
All of the news from Benghazi to the economy runs either negative for Obama or neutral.
I think we will see a break in the polls in our favor in the next couple of days.
If Wisconsin is close, it is a decisive Romney win. No one is talking landslide like the Reagan years. Impossible in today’ environment. I think Romney has a real shot in Michigan, where he was born, and where Ryan’s message seems to resonate. Pennsylvania is a long shot, and unlikely, unless it is a true wave election. We win Iowa, New Hampshire, hopefully Ohio, and the rest is just padding.
“Still, it’s Obama who has the edge in the Electoral College. Rasmussen Reports currently projects that the president should win states with 237 Electoral College votes. Romney has enough states to win 235.”
Why does everyone worship Rassmussen when he writes crap like this ?
First, Romney is leading in Maine’s 2 congressional district which makes the count 236-236 and in a 260-269 tie, Romney wins so it is Romney with the edge.
Next, he is dead wrong about this statement.
“If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes.”
I believe (winning FL and VA of course) that losing OH and WI, Romney still wins by taking CO, NV, and IO which gets to 269 and a win in the house of reps. or add cd2 in Maine gets to 270 or adding NH gets to 273.
First I want to say you are by far my favorite person to read on Free Republic.
I am not in any position to question your wisdom but the poll below tells me Michigan may be in play. They contacted over 35,000 to get their sample.
Thank you for your great insight on this board.
Crosslink
http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat
Agreed.. Ras is as straight as shooter as anyone can be. If he says it, I believe it... and, I believe NO ONE else has a clearer picture of what’s going on.
I’m sure, in many areas of the country, Romney is pulling away and winning by a landslide... I’m certain he will win the popular vote. But, that’s not how we elect Presidents. It all comes down to state by state...
If Ohio is close (and, it is...) the Dems can CHEAT (and, they will).
I HOPE everyone is correct, that the closing days move toward Romney the same way things did for Reagan. That’s what it FEELS like to me... But, I’ve never had a good feeling about Ohio. It’s a place FULL of liberals..... with voting areas dominated by 5 large urban areas... easy places to massively cheat.
We will see, right now Romney should have a +1/2 nationally and that would *normally* mean a good win. Things will be close, so every vote is going count more than ever.
This poll is very good news but it has two questionable elements, it is not well known nationally (but that might be offset by the fact that it is local and presumably with local knowledge) and it is an automated telephone call poll which is not trusted by many. The internals could be a little bit more favorable.
Sample size, however, is huge.
I hope these guys know what they are doing.
Yes.. I'd seen that too. In fact, if Obama somehow DID win Ohio, I have been VERY afraid of the TIE scenario... since, I do think we have a very good chance to win CO, NV, and IO.
That one district in Maine could be HUGE!
Still though... if we're even entertaining the POSSIBILITY of such outcomes, this race is WAYYY closer than I'd like it to be.
I agree with all your points, My hope is the great “Wilder” effect will drop two to three points off all of O’s numbers as they did many times in the primarys.
I do too.
I think the Bradley effect is in play, and could add 2 to 4% to Romney. There's an enthusiasm gap, and it will completely nullify any ground game advantage the Dems may have.
Also, it seems to me the polling is still using 2008 turnout models, as if 2010 shellacking never happened. Rasmussen using +6 Dems today. I don't see how this can result in anything other than a significant margin for Romney. I say 330 to 350 EV's for the Republican.
HELLO!!! nathanbedford very glad to see you here again!!! Hope to see
you check-in more often over the next couple of weeks!!! Your insight
is valuable to most of us here!!!!
This is important information indeed, do you have a source, just to make me rest a little bit easier?
OK, but even under your scenario no Dick Morris electoral land side is in sight yet...it’s nip and tuck and find that last electoral vote. More 2000 and 2004 than 1980.
Your scenario requires a win in IA. So IA, WI, take your pick. If Romney can’t take OH he has to win some other state not all that favorable to him at this moment. So in principle you agree with Rasmussen that its too soon to party, you just have a different path.
All I’m saying is that we need to remain vigilant and not get TOO cocky yet. Not sure why that’s a bad thing. (See: Cardinals v Nationals, 2012 NLDS, Game 5, Inning 9, 2 Outs, 2 Strikes on two different batters).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.